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dazttle · 2024年07月02日

future consumption outcome 是什麽意思

NO.PZ2015121810000042

问题如下:

Risk-averse investors demanding a large equity risk premium are most likely expecting their future consumption outcomes and equity returns to be:

选项:

A.

uncorrelated.

B.

positively correlated.

C.

negatively correlated.

解释:

B is correct.

If investors demand high equity risk premiums, they are likely expecting their future consumption and equity returns to be positively correlated. The positive correlation indicates that equities will exhibit poor hedging properties, as equity returns will be high (e.g., pay off) during "good times" and will be low (e.g., not pay off) during "bad times". In other words, the covariance between risk-averse investors’ inter-temporal rates of substitution and the expected future prices of equities is highly negative, resulting in a positive and large equity risk premium. This is the case because, in good times, when equity returns are high, the marginal value of consumption is low. Similarly, in bad times, when equity returns are low, the marginal value of consumption is high. Holding all else constant, the larger the magnitude of the negative covariance term, the larger the risk premium.

考点: equity risk premium & consumption outcomes

解析:问的是股票收益与实体经济的相关性,两者是正相关的,因为实体经济变好,股票收益率增加。正因为两者正相关,所以在经济下滑时,股票不是很好的对冲经济下滑的工具,所以要使风险厌恶的投资者投资股票,就必须给他们更高的风险补偿。

future consumption outcome = marginal value of consumption?

1 个答案

品职助教_七七 · 2024年07月02日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


future consumption outcome为未来的消费水平。和marginal没有直接的关系。

经济好的时候,equity return高,收入和消费水平也高。经济差的时候则两者都低。

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