主题风险和事件风险

问题如下：

Q. The basic geopolitical risk type most likely in comparison to have the smallest degree of uncertainty is:

选项：

A.exogenous risk.

B.event risk.

C.thematic risk.

解释：

B is correct. Event risk evolves around set dates, such as elections or new legislation, or other date-driven milestones, such as holidays or political anniversaries. Analysts can thus look to political calendars as a predictable starting point for determining the occurrence of event risk, with time to devise a suitable response.

A is incorrect because exogenous risk is sudden and unanticipated. Examples include sudden uprisings, invasions, or the aftermath of natural disasters. The timing and range of its effects thus have the greatest unknowns. C is incorrect because thematic risks are known risks that evolve and expand over a period of time. Climate change, pattern migration, the rise of populist forces, and the ongoing threat of terrorism fall into this category. These are more foreseeable than exogenous risks, but with their extended interval of exposure, planned responses likely require continual adjustments.

B正确。事件风险是围绕设定的日期演变的，例如选举或新的立法，或其他日期驱动的里程碑，例如假日或政治纪念日。因此，分析师可以将政治日历视为确定事件风险发生的可预测起点，并有时间设计合适的应对措施。

A是不正确的，因为外生风险是突然的和不可预测的。例子包括突然的起义、入侵或自然灾害的后果。因此，其影响的时间和范围是最大的未知数。

C是不正确的，因为主题风险是在一段时间内演变和扩展的已知风险。气候变化、移民模式、民粹主义力量的崛起以及持续不断的恐怖主义威胁都属于这一类。这些风险比外生风险更容易预见，但由于它们暴露的时间间隔较长，计划中的应对措施可能需要不断调整。