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Captain America · 2024年05月17日

请问B选项为什么错?

NO.PZ2018091706000061

问题如下:

Assume that the DM country has what is considered a low-yield safe haven currency while the EM country has a high-yield currency whose value is more exposed to fluctuations in the global economic growth rate. All else equal, the exchange rate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the:


选项:

A.

long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency is revised upward

B.

nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time

C.

expected inflation differential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward

解释:

All else equal, an increase in the expected inflation differential should lead to depreciation of the EM currency.

解析:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

根据上述公式。所以AB选项错误。

在其它条件相同的情况下,预期通胀率的扩大会加两国的风险溢价之差,从而应会导致新兴市场货币贬值。所以C选项正确。


请问B选项为什么错?

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2024年05月17日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


请问B选项为什么错?

Hello,亲爱的同学~


nominal yield spread是指名义利率的差值。

名义利率 = 实际利率 + 通胀。

可以推导出:名义利率差 = 实际利率差 + 通胀差


名义利差加大,可能是实际利率加大,此时货币升值。

也可能是通胀差距加大,此时货币贬值。

所以要看具体变化的成分,拆解出具体是那部分变化,才能判断升贬值。


因为B选项的nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time,无法拆解出是哪个部分变大,如果是实际利率变大,而不是风险溢价变大,EM汇率未必贬值。所以B不对。



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