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西红柿面 · 2024年05月10日

第二个说法怎么错了呢

NO.PZ2023041102000027

问题如下:

Beauregard has concerns about the firm’s experiences during currency crises. She recalls reading a study produced by the IMF that an impending currency crisis is signaled by numerous economic variables. She makes the following statements with regard to some of these variables:

1. Trade balances exhibit substantial decline prior to the crisis.

2. A country has distinctive economic growth patterns ahead of the crisis.

3. Inflation is significantly higher in the pre-crisis period.

Which of Beauregard’s statements regarding a currency crisis is the most accurate?

选项:

A.Statement 3 B.Statement 2 C.Statement 1

解释:

Statement 3 is the most accurate. Inflation tends to be significantly higher in pre-crisis periods compared with tranquil periods.

表述3最准确。与平静时期相比,危机前时期的通胀率往往要高得多。

2. A country has distinctive economic growth patterns ahead of the crisis.

危机前是经济还没有开始衰退,是保持高增长的呀

1 个答案
已采纳答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2024年05月10日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


第二个说法怎么错了呢

危机前是经济还没有开始衰退,是保持高增长的呀

Hello,亲爱的同学~

在有一些危机前,经济确实是保持高增长的。

这一点同学的理解也是合理的。


只是这道题并没有问,危机前,经济是什么情况。

这道题的问题是:什么样的经济现象,可以预测危机。


危机前会有各种各样的经济现象。

有的经济现象,可以预测危机。

但有的经济现象,虽然在危机前也会有,但这个现象本身并不能预测危机。


例如经济高增长。

经济高增长后,确实有一些经济体,可能发生经济危机。

但更多的例子是,经济高增长后,经济依旧健康,未来不会发生危机,而是继续高增长。

也就是说:经济高增长,并不能预测危机。


不同的经济增长模式,也不可以预测危机。

因为每个经济体,都有最适合自己的增长模式。


那么究竟哪些经济现象可以预测危机,我们整理如下:


大致有:资本市场允许外资自由流动,资本流入量相对GDP过多,银行业危机,固定汇率,货币过度升值,term of trade(出口价格/进口价格)下跌,M2过多,通胀过高。



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