NO.PZ2022123002000014
问题如下：
HNW, a wealth managementcompany, was forecasting that the euro was likely to appreciate against the USdollar in the next six months. Testa agreed with HNW’s assessment of the futurecourse of the USD/EUR exchange rate. His conclusion was derived from assessingvarious analysts’ reports and was centered on the following three reasons:
1. real interest rates were higher in euro-basedcountries,
2. the potential default of several euro-basedcountries from their excessive debt loads would lead to strong support measuresfrom the IMF and the European Central Bank, and
3. the US balance of trade deficit with euro-basedcountries had continued to decline in the past several years and was expectedto continue to decline.
Whichof Testa’s reasons for the future course of the USD/EUR exchange rate in 2009is most consistent with HNW’s assessment?
选项：
A.
Reason 1
B.
Reason 2
C.
Reason 3
解释：
Correct Answer: A
A is correct.HNW’s assessment was that the euro was likely to appreciate against the US dollarwithin the next six months. Reason 1, higher real rates in euro-basedcountries, is consistent with an appreciation of the euro. Higher euro rateswill attract “foreign” investors and drive up demand for the euro as theyacquire those investments.
B is incorrect.Reason 2, the potential default of several euro-based countries from theirexcessive debt loads, would result in a lower foreign risk premium (i.e., theUS dollar would be less risky) and should lead to a depreciation of the euro.
C is incorrect.Reason 3, a decline in the US trade deficit (i.e., net exports), means that forthe United States, imports decreased relative to exports, resulting in lowerdemand for the euro, and it should weaken relative to the US dollar.
这题是不是因为问的是未来6个月，所以考虑的是利率对汇率的短期影响，所以欧元利率上升，短期（6个月）欧元升值
