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卿考必过 · 2024年05月05日

请问这道题A选项是哪里错了?

NO.PZ2024050101000030

问题如下:

Suppose the hazard rate is constant and equal to 0.090. In this case, each of the following is true except which is false?

选项:

A.

The unconditional one-year default probability is 8.6%

B.

The unconditional two-year default probability is 16.5%

C.

The probability of joint event of survival through the first year and default in the second year is 7.9%

D.

The conditional one-year default probability, given survival through the first year, is 17.3%

解释:

The conditional one-year PD is equal to 8.6%, same as the unconditional one-year default probability.

D选项是如何计算得到的?

1 个答案

李坏_品职助教 · 2024年05月05日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


本题让你选出错误的选项,A选项是对的,所以不选A,要选D。


题目告诉我们hazard rate是0.09,

conditional one-year default probability = unconditional one-year default probability = 1-e^(-0.09*1) = 8.6%, 所以A选项是正确的计算结果,不选A。



D选项的conditional one-year default probability也应该是8.6%,因为第一年之前没有其他年份,所以条件PD和非条件PD是一样的,所以D选项计算结果错误,选D。

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