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黄路迦 · 2024年05月02日

为什么反向最优更保守

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NO.PZ201803130100000401

问题如下:

Contrast, using the information provided above, the results of a reverse optimization approach with that of the MVO approach for each of the following:
i. The asset allocation mix. Justify your response.

选项:

解释:

■ The asset allocation weights for the reverse optimization method are inputs into the optimization and are determined by the market capitalization weights of the global market portfolio.

■ The asset allocation weights for the MVO method are outputs of the optimization with the expected returns, covariances, and a risk aversion coefficient used as inputs.

■ The two methods result in significantly different asset allocation mixes.

■ In contrast to MVO, the reverse optimization method results in a higher percentage point allocation to global bonds, US bonds, and global equities as well as a lower percentage point allocation to cash and US equities.

The reverse optimization method takes the asset allocation weights as its inputs that are assumed to be optimal. These weights are calculated as the market capitalization weights of a global market portfolio. In contrast, the outputs of an MVO are the asset allocation weights, which are based on (1) expected returns and covariances that are forecasted using historical data and (2) a risk aversion coefficient. The two methods result in significantly different asset allocation mixes. In contrast to MVO, the reverse optimization method results in a 4.9, 5.5, and 10.1 higher percentage point allocation to US bonds, global equities, and global bonds, respectively, and a 6.1 and 14.4 lower percentage point allocation to cash and US equities, respectively.
The asset allocation under the two methods is as follows:



In contrast to MVO, the reverse optimization method results in a higher percentage point allocation to global bonds, US bonds, and global equities as well as a lower percentage point allocation to cash and US equities.

为什么呢

1 个答案

lynn_品职助教 · 2024年05月03日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


reverse optimization的两点好处是:


•Take as its inputs a set of asset allocation weights that are assumed to be optimal and solves for expected returns, which are referred to as implied or imputed returns.


采用了implied return而不是资产的expected return,因为MVO对输入变量(尤其是Expected return)非常敏感。


•Relate assets' expected returns to their systematic risk. 反映了系统性风险,因为资产的implied return与CAPM的结论一致。


reverse optimization解决的是MVO方法highly sensitive to the inputs的问题,这个问题表现为结果很不稳定。所以跟MVO方法相比,reverse optimization is more stable。


因此反向最优是更stable 更diversify所以就是更保守

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