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Linda · 2024年04月23日

为什么不选B

NO.PZ2023021601000063

问题如下:

In the 1980s, Japan was viewed by many FMPs as the model economy. Although its growth began to decelerate sharply by 1990, it was not until the mid to late 1990s that FMPs’ GDP forecasts were consistently achieved. By taking several years to adapt their forecasts to the lower growth environment, FMPs exhibited which behavioral bias?

选项:

A.Mental accounting B.Overconfidence C.Conservatism

解释:

Conservatism bias results in maintain or only slowly updating views and forecasts despite the presence of new information. FMPs in the 1990s were reluctant to update forecasts, despite materially different new information for several years.

B也很对啊

1 个答案

Kiko_品职助教 · 2024年04月23日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


Overconfidence 更多的是有2个体现,第一是甩锅,就是除了问题,都不是自己的问题,第二是居功,获得的成就都是自己的,这道题并没有体现。

这道题说的是从1990年的时候,日本经济就已经放缓了,但是FMP就一直保持着80年的观点,就一直觉得日本经济依然发展的很好,直到过去五六年,他们才意识到日本已经处于较低的经济增长环境了。这说明这些人观点依然保守,在有新信息的情况下仍然不愿更新预测。Comservatism就是对新的状况反应不及时,或者说不愿意改变现状。所以选C是最准确的。

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

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