Prudence trap 与anchoring 的区别

问题如下：

Which of the following psychological traps best describes Rogers’s team’s decision to give historical correlation more weight in the correlation matrix?

选项：

A.Prudence trap B.Overconfidence trap C.Anchoring trap

解释：

Solution

A is correct. Rogers’s team views giving more weight to the historical correlations as a safety measure and as a way to manage client expectations. They do not want to appear extreme. The prudence trap is the tendency to be cautious when making decisions that could be potentially expensive or damaging to the decision maker’s career.

B is incorrect because the overconfidence trap is when an individual overestimates the accuracy of their forecast by not considering the possibility of bad events.

C is incorrect because the anchoring trap occurs when there is a particular initial point of view that dominates an analysis.

本题考查的是Prudence trap

A是正确的。罗杰斯的团队认为，将更多地重视历史相关性作为一种安全措施，并作为管理客户期望的一种方式。这是因为他们不想显得极端。“谨慎陷阱”指的是当面临做出可能会带来潜在代价或损害决策者职业生涯的决定时，人们会倾向于谨慎。这正是文中体现的意思。

B是不正确的，因为过度自信陷阱是指一个人不考虑坏事件的可能性而过高估计他们预测的准确性。本文中并未体现。

C是不正确。因为锚定陷阱发生时，会有一个特定的初始观点特别是数值主导了分析。题目中也为体现。