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Calvin98 · 2024年04月22日

关于terminal value

  1. CFA II
  2. Equity

NO.PZ2023032701000067

问题如下：

Nkomo mentions to Mahlangu that Amersheen recently (near the end of 2011) completed the acquisition of a chain of convenience stores. Nkomo requests that Mahlangu complete, as of the beginning of 2012, an updated valuation of Amersheen under two scenarios:

Scenario 1 Estimate the value of Amersheen shares using a multistage residual income (RI) model with the data provided in Exhibit 3. Under Scenario 1, expected ROE in 2015 is 26% but it is assumed that the firm’s ROE will slowly decline towards the cost of equity thereafter.

Exhibit 3. Amersheen Data (amounts in South African Rand)

Under Scenario 1, the intrinsic value per share of the equity of Amersheen is closest to:

选项：

A.

R13.29

B.

R15.57

C.

R16.31

解释：


老师好，我是用2014年算出来的（RI 1.982 * W ）/（1+r+W)再和1.982一起折现三年。这样是不对的吗，算出来15.8。

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1 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2024年04月22日

图一是原版书使用的公式，而图二是李老师上课的时候推导的公式，同学可以注意一下，李老师推导的公式右边用红色手写字体写的公式就是原版书这个公式的后半部分除去（1/（1+r)^(T-1)这个部分后的公式。

同学可能不记得了，上课的时候，李老师给出的这个公式其实是根据原版书公式推导来的，假设w=1+g,在原版书这个公式的基础上向后推导一年得出的

也就是说，在使用这两个公式时，李老师的公式比原版书公式向后多推导了一年。现在你看到的题目解析，都是沿用的原版书的公式。你想要用李老师的公式，必须多向后推导一年才能使用


另外，注意题目这里说的是“ expected ROE in 2015 is 26% but it is assumed that the firm’s ROE will slowly decline towards the cost of equity thereafter.”也就是RI是从2015年这一年开始慢慢下降的，而不是从2014年就开始下降的

也就是2014年的RI并不符合可以从2015年开始下降的那个w的使用条件

你要用李老师的这个公式，必须先计算2015年的RI，再用(RI2016=RI5*w)/（1+r+w)来计算落在2015年年末的PVRI，再和RI2015一起折现4年才能得到和题目解析一样的答案


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