我的理解哪里有偏差？

问题如下：

Ÿ Tuoc: I prefer econometricmodeling. Robust models built with detailed regression analysis can helppredict recessions well because the established relationships among thevariables seldom change.

Ÿ Spenser: I like the economicindicators approach. For example, the composite of leading economic indicatorsis based on an analysis of its forecasting usefulness in past cycles. They areintuitive, simple to construct, require only a limited number of variables, andthird-party versions are also available.

Ÿ Poulsen: The checklist approachis my choice. This straightforward approach considers the widest range of data.Using a simple statistical method, such as time-series analysis, an analyst canquickly assess which measures are extreme. This approach relies less onsubjectivity and is less time-consuming.

Regarding theapproaches to economic forecasting, the statement by which analyst is mostaccurate?

选项：

A. Poulsen

B.

Tuoc

C. Spenser

解释：

Correct answer: C

C is correct.Spenser’s statement is most accurate. In the economic indicators approach, forexample, the composite of leading economic indicators is based on an analysisof its forecasting usefulness in past cycles. The indicators are intuitive,simple to construct, require only a limited number of variables, andthird-party versions are also available.

A is incorrect.Contrary to Poulson’s statement, the checklist approach is highly subjectiveand time-consuming.

B is incorrect.Contrary to Tuoc’s statement, the relationships between variables are likely tochange. In practice, model-based forecasts rarely forecast recessions well, althoughthey have a better record of anticipating upturns.

中文解析：

斯宾塞的说法是最准确的。例如，在经济指标方法中，主要经济指标的综合是基于对其在过去周期中的预测效用的分析。这些指标直观，构造简单，只需要有限数量的变量，也可以使用第三方版本。

A不正确。与保尔森的说法相反，清单方法是非常主观和耗时的。

B不正确。与tuc的说法相反，变量之间的关系可能会发生变化。在实践中，基于模型的预测很少能准确预测经济衰退，尽管它们在预测经济回升方面有更好的记录。