NO.PZ2023071902000079
问题如下：
QuestionThe spread between the overnight borrowing rate and the 10-year Treasury yield is most likely:
选项：
A.is a lagging economic indicator. B.narrows when an economic decline is anticipated by the market.
C.widens when the market forecasts a drop in future short-term interest rates.
解释：
Solution
- Incorrect, since leading economic indicators show pivotal shifts that typically come before the broader economic transitions. On the other hand, lagging economic indicators reveal turning points post those of the overarching economy. The interest rate gap between 10-year treasury yields and overnight borrowing rates acts as a forward-looking economic gauge.
- Correct, considering that long-term yields convey market sentiments about the trajectory of imminent short-term interest rates. As these rates eventually resonate with the cyclic economic shifts, a more expansive spread, forecasting a rise in short rates, also projects an economic rebound. In contrast, a tighter spread, foreseeing a drop in short rates, aligns with the projection of an economic slump.
- Incorrect, given that long-term yields mirror market projections on the course of imminent short-term interest rates. These rates inevitably align with the cyclical economic movements. An expansive spread, predicting an uptick in short rates, signals an impending economic surge. On the contrary, a constricted spread, forecasting a downturn in short rates, corresponds with an anticipated economic regression.
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A不正确，因为领先经济指标显示的关键转变通常在更广泛的经济转型之前出现。另一方面，滞后的经济指标显示了总体经济的转折点。10年期美国国债收益率与隔夜借款利率之间的息差是一项前瞻性经济指标。
B正确，考虑到长期收益率传达了市场对即将到来的短期利率走势的情绪。由于这些利率最终与周期性经济变化产生共鸣，预测短期利率上升的更大利差也预示着经济反弹。相比之下，利差收窄预示着短期利率下降，与经济衰退的预测一致。
C不正确，因为长期收益率反映了市场对即将到来的短期利率走势的预测。这些利率不可避免地与周期性经济运动保持一致。利差扩大预示着短期利率的上升，预示着即将到来的经济增长。相反，利差缩窄预示着短期利率的下滑，与预期的经济衰退相对 应。
利差变大意味着经济将变好，降息也是经济变好，C为什么不对呢？
