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Cooljas · 2024年04月20日

EWMA不是说assign weight using an exponential smoothing吗?

NO.PZ2023091701000105

问题如下:

A junior risk analyst is modeling the volatility of a certain market variable. The analyst considers using either the EWMA or the GARCH (1,1) model. Which of the following statements is correct?

选项:

A.The EWMA model is a special case of the GARCH (1,1) model with the additional assumption that the longrun volatility is zero. B.A variance estimated from the GARCH (1,1) model is a weighted average of the prior day’s estimated variance and the prior day’s squared return. C.The GARCH (1,1) model assigns a higher weight to the prior day’s estimated variance than the EWMA model. D.A variance estimated from the EWMA model is a weighted average of the prior day’s estimated variance and the prior day’s squared return.

解释:

D is correct. The EWMA estimate of variance is a weighted average of the variance rate estimated for the prior day and the prior day’s observed squared return.

A is incorrect. EWMA is a particular case of GARCH (1,1) with the weight assigned to the long-run average variance rate as zero and the sum of the weights of the other two parameters equal to 1.

B is incorrect because there is also weight assigned to the long-run average variance rate.

C is incorrect because such a comparison can only be done under specific parameter configurations.



1 个答案

李坏_品职助教 · 2024年04月20日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


EWMA可以说是用指数平滑作为权重,也可以说是前一天的variance rate与前一天的squared return的加权平均(这是从公式来看的):

看EWMA的公式,σn^2是由两部分的加权平均得来的,第一部分是σn-1^2,这也就是前一天的variance rate,第二部分是μn-1^2, 这也就是前一天的return的平方。所以A选项说的也是正确的。


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