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Captain America · 2024年04月18日

country Bfuture spot rate高于current forward rate和downward是否矛盾?

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NO.PZ202304070100001302

问题如下:

Based on Exhibit 1 and assuming Tyo’s market views on yield curve changes are realized, the forward curve of which country will lie below its spot curve?

选项:

A.

Country A

B.

Country B

C.

Country C

解释:

Correct Answer: B

The yield curve for Country B is currently upward sloping, but Tyo expects a reversal in the slope of the current yield curve. This means she expects the resulting yield curve for Country B to slope downward, which implies that the resulting forward curve would lie below the spot yield curve. The forward curve lies below the spot curve in scenarios in which the spot curve is downward sloping; the forward curve lies above the spot curve in scenarios in which the spot curve is upward sloping.

A is incorrect because the yield curve for Country A is currently upward sloping and Tyo expects that the yield curve will maintain its shape and level. That expectation implies that the resulting forward curve would be above the spot yield curve.

C is incorrect because the yield curve for Country C is currently downward sloping and Tyo expects a reversal in the slope of the current yield curve. This means she expects the resulting yield curve for Country C to slope upward, which implies that the resulting forward curve would be above the spot yield curve.

country Bfuture spot rate高于current forward rate这个和reversal到downward是否矛盾?

1 个答案

品职答疑小助手雍 · 2024年04月19日

同学你好,不矛盾,这道题的逻辑是目前表格里B的spot curve是向上倾斜的,现在这个人觉得曲线会reversal(未来的spot rate会变得比当前的forward rate高)。

这会导致的结果会是未来的forward rate低于spot rate使曲线向下倾斜。

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