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Helen Tam · 2024年04月17日

請問對discount rate 解讀如下是正確的嗎?

NO.PZ2024021802000081

问题如下:

Which of the following statements about incorporating ESG factors into valuation inputs is most accurate?

选项:

A.Adjustments to the discount rate can be based on individual company factors or on a country or sector basis

B.The terminal growth rate is typically a weighted average of the required rates of return by debt and equity investors

C.The discount rate should be decreased to account for the risk that future cash flows could be impacted by unpredictable climate policy shifts

解释:

A. Correct because adjustments to the discount rate or terminal growth rate can be based on individual company factors or on a country or sector basis.

B. Incorrect because this response describes the discount rate, not the terminal growth rate. The terminal growth rate is a perpetual compound annual growth rate that a company’s cash flow is assumed to grow by after the discrete forecasting period (e.g., after the next 5 or 10 years of individual forecasts, an analyst assumes cash flows grow by 2% forever); it reflects the company’s growth prospects.

C. Incorrect because if a company faces significant environmental regulations or litigation, that could hurt its future cash flows. The investor would factor in the potential costs of these risks into cash flow projections, lowering the company’s valuation in a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. Besides adjustments to discrete cash flow projections, analysts can adjust the discount rate (e.g., required rate of return, cost of capital) or terminal growth assumption in their DCF model to account for material ESG factors. For example, all coal producers and coal-powered utilities might be judged to have higher climate-related risk and thus higher discount rates. Their discount rate should be increased (instead of decreased) to account for the risk that future cash flows could be impacted by unpredictable climate policy shifts.

請問對discount rate 解讀如下是正確的嗎? esg 表現好, 貼現率 discount rate 低 climate policy 表現差,discount rate 高 因為discount rate 是反映投資價值表現。

1 个答案

Tina_品职助教 · 2024年04月17日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


ESG表现好,贴现率低

  • 好的ESG表现意味着公司在环境、社会和治理方面的风险较低,这可能会导致投资者对该公司的未来现金流的不确定性较小。因此,投资者可能会要求较低的回报率,以反映较低的风险水平。这样,贴现率(即所需回报率)也可能较低。

Climate policy表现差,贴现率高

  • 如果一个公司面临由于气候政策带来的不确定性和风险,如潜在的环境法规变化或诉讼风险,这会增加未来现金流的不确定性。因此,投资者为了补偿这种高风险,可能会要求更高的回报率。这样,贴现率将会上升,反映出较高的风险。

总的来说,贴现率确实是反映投资的风险和时间价值。当预计未来现金流的风险增加时(如因ESG风险或气候政策的不确定性),贴现率通常会上升以反映这一点。相反,如果风险较低,贴现率通常会下降。贴现率的调整是在进行折现现金流(DCF)分析时估值模型的重要组成部分,能够帮助分析师评估公司在未来可能面临的各种风险。

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

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