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世纪之龙5 · 2024年04月16日

能解释下acd吗

NO.PZ2016072602000031

问题如下:

Counterparty A is an American company with manufacturing operations in Indonesia and its main customers in the United States, while counterparty B is an American company that manufactures its goods domestically and exports solely to Indonesia. Which one of the following transactions with either counterparty will be a wrong-way exposure for a bank?

选项:

A.

A five-year plain-vanilla IDR/USD cross-currency swap between the bank and counterparty A where the bank is USD interest rate receiver

B.

A five-year plain-vanilla IDR/USD currency option sold by the bank to counterparty A for it to buy IDR at a certain rate

C.

A five-year plain-vanilla IDR/USD cross-currency swap between the bank and counterparty B where the bank is USD interest rate receiver

D.

A five-year plain-vanilla IDR/USD currency option bought by the bank from counterparty B for the bank to buy IDR at a certain rate

解释:

C is correct. This is an example of a wrong-way exposure, where a gain on the instrument for the bank is associated with a higher probability of default (PD) for its counterparty. If the IDR depreciates, counterparty A will make a profit because its costs will go down in dollars; conversely for counterparty B, because its dollar revenues will decrease. Under c., the company pays USD and receives IDR. This transaction will create a loss if the IDR depreciates. In this situation, counterparty B will lose money as well on its exports. Hence, this is a wrong-way trade.

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李坏_品职助教 · 2024年04月16日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


题目说:现在银行有两个交易对手方,一个是A公司,一个是B公司,问你ABCD哪一个选项是属于wrong way exposure?


A选项:银行收取USD利息(USD升值就会导致Bank赚钱,USD贬值导致Bank亏钱)。IDR贬值就是意味着USD相对于IDR在升值,随着USD升值,Bank的利润增加,而A公司在USD升值的时候,它的美元收入在升值,所以A公司情况很好,不会违约

如果IDR升值,那么意味着USD相对于IDR在贬值,那么此时Bank存在亏损,那么A公司违约反而更好,bank的亏损不需要兑现了。

所以A选项对于bank是right way exposure。


B选项:银行卖给了A公司一个期权,期初银行就立刻收到了期权费,之后A公司是否出现违约,和银行无关了。银行就没有exposure。


C选项:银行收取USD利息,IDR贬值就是意味着USD相对于IDR在升值,随着USD升值,Bank的利润增加,而B公司此时因为IDR贬值,它的收入在贬值,所以B公司的违约概率上升,导致银行可能无法兑现利润。这个就是典型的wrong way exposure,也就是银行账面敞口与客户的违约概率正相关了。


D选项:银行买入一个外汇期权,有权利买入IDR(就是IDR的看涨期权)。IDR汇率升值,意味着B公司的收入也在升值,此时银行的期权利润增加,B公司也不会违约,所以是right way exposure。

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