管理层预测

问题如下：

An analyst forecasts a company’s sales using a historical results approach and top-down drivers (expected industry sales and expected market share). The analyst observes that the forecast is within the range of management guidance on sales but is toward the upper end and not closer to the midpoint. Which of the following is the most likely explanation for this observation?

选项：

A.

The analyst has been overly optimistic in estimating the company’s expected market share

B.

Management’s true expectations are toward the upper end, but management has created a range using a pessimistic lower bound that is more easily cleared.

C.

The midpoint represents management’s true expectations, and management has a lower and better estimate of market growth based on macroeconomic variables

解释：

B is correct. Management has a tendency to pad its guidance to make it easier to achieve the forecast results for which management will be rewarded. Management does not have an informational advantage at the macroeconomic level.