NO.PZ202210140200000102
问题如下：
An equity index is established in Year 1 for a country that has recently moved to a market economy. The index vendor constructed returns for the four years prior to Year 1 based on the initial group of companies constituting the index in Year 1. From Year 12 to Year 16, a series of military confrontations concerning a disputed border disrupted the economy and financial markets. The dispute is conclusively arbitrated at the end of Year 16. In total, 20 years of equity market return history is available. Other selected data are in the following tables.
The events of 2012 to 2016 would be expected to:
选项：
A.bias the historical ERP estimate upward
bias the historical ERP estimate downward
have no effect on the historical ERP estimate
解释：
B is correct. The events of Year 12 through Year 16 depressed share returns but (1) are not a persistent feature of the stock market environment, (2) were not offset by other positive events within the historical record, and (3) have led to relatively low valuation levels, which are expected to rebound.
另一个问题里经济衰退ERP升高 https://class.pzacademy.com/qa/122411
这个问题里战争摧毁经济 ERP降低。
不矛盾么？
