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cenwandada · 2024年04月13日

一年半即期利率怎么比一年期利率要低,是不是不太对啊

NO.PZ2020011303000190

问题如下:

The cash prices of 6-month and one-year Treasury bills are 97.0 and 93.0. A 1.5-year and two-year Treasury bond with coupons at the rate of 6% per year sell for 98.5 and 97.5. Calculate the six-month, 12-month, 18-month, and 24-month spot rates with semi-annual compounding.

解释:

1. The six-month rate (semi-annually compounded) is 2 x (100/971) = 0.06186 or 6.186%.

2. The one-year rate (semi-annuallycompounded) is 2 × [ (100/93)1/21 ] = 0.07390 or 7.390%.

3. The coupons on the 1.5 year bond have a value of 0.97 × 3 + 0.93 × 3 = 5.7.

The value of the final payment is therefore 98.5 − 5.7 = 92.8.

The discount factor for 1.5 years is 92.8/103 = 0.900971.

This corresponds to a spot rate (semi-annually compounded) of 7.074%.

4. The coupons on the two-year bond have a value of 3 × 0.97 + 3 × 0.93 + 3 × 0.900971 = 8.4029

The value of the final payment is therefore 97.5 8.4029 = 89.0971.

The discountfactor for two years is 89.0971/103 = 0.8650.

This corresponds to a spot rate(semi-annually compounded) of 7.383%.

题目问:6个月和1年的T-bill的价格是97931.5年和2年的T-bondcoupon rate6%per year价格是98.597.5,计算6个月、12个月、18个月、24个月的半年付息一次的spot rate是多少?
1. 6个月的spotrate(半年付息一次)= 2 x (100/971)= 6.186%

2. 1年的spotrate(半年付息一次)= 2 × [ (100/93)1/21 ] = 7.390%

3. T-bond是附息债券,T-bill是零息的,T-bill求出来的价格就是折现系数,6个月的折现系数是0.97,12个月的折现系数是0.93

1.5年期的附息债券的coupon的价格= 0.97 × 3 + 0.93 × 3 = 5.7.

最后一笔本金的价格=98.5 − 5.7 = 92.8.

1.5年的discountfactor= 92.8/103 = 0.900971

discount factor=1/(1+r)^n

即可反求出1.5年的spotrate(半年付息一次) =7.074%.

4. 2年期的附息债券的coupon价格=3 × 0.97 + 3 × 0.93 + 3 × 0.900971 =8.4029

最后一笔本金的价格=97.5 – 8.4029= 89.0971

2年的discountfactor= 89.0971/103 = 0.8650

discount factor=1/(1+r)^n

即可反求出2年的spotrate(半年付息一次) =7.383%.

一年半即期利率怎么比一年期利率要低,是不是不太对啊

1 个答案

pzqa39 · 2024年04月14日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


一年半即期利率通常不会直接与一年期利率进行比较,因为两者所代表的期限不同,而且市场环境、货币政策、经济状况等因素对不同期限的利率水平都有影响。不过,从理论上讲,一年半即期利率与一年期利率的关系并不必然存在固定的高低之分。实际情况取决于多种因素,以下是一些可能的情形:

  1. 利率曲线形态:市场上的利率通常会形成一条利率曲线,描绘了不同期限的利率水平。这条曲线可能是向上倾斜(正斜率)、平坦或向下倾斜(负斜率)。在正常的市场环境下,利率曲线通常向上倾斜,即期限越长,利率越高,反映了投资者对长期资金占用要求更高的风险补偿。在这种情况下,一年半即期利率理论上应高于一年期利率。
  2. 货币政策影响:中央银行的货币政策操作,如调整基准利率、实施量化宽松等,会对整个收益率曲线产生影响。如果央行推行宽松货币政策,降低短期利率以刺激经济增长,可能会导致短期利率下降幅度大于长期利率,使得一年半即期利率低于一年期利率。反之,紧缩货币政策可能导致一年半即期利率高于一年期利率。
  3. 市场预期:市场对未来经济前景、通胀预期、信用风险等因素的预期也会影响利率水平。如果市场预期未来一年经济将放缓,通胀压力减轻,或者信用风险下降,可能会导致长期利率下降,使得一年半即期利率低于一年期利率。相反,如果预期经济强劲增长、通胀加剧或信用风险上升,长期利率可能上升,一年半即期利率高于一年期利率。
  4. 流动性差异:不同期限的债券或贷款,其市场的流动性可能存在差异。一般而言,短期债券的流动性较好,投资者愿意接受较低的收益率。如果一年半期限的债券流动性较差,投资者可能要求更高的风险溢价,导致一年半即期利率高于一年期利率。
  5. 技术因素:金融市场中有时会出现短期利率高于长期利率的反常现象,即收益率曲线倒挂,这往往是由于市场参与者对短期经济前景极度悲观,预期未来降息或经济衰退,从而推高短期利率。在这样的情况下,一年半即期利率可能低于一年期利率。

一年半即期利率与一年期利率的高低关系并非固定不变,而是受到多种因素的影响。在正常市场环境下,一年半即期利率通常会高于一年期利率,但具体情形需结合当时的市场条件、经济状况和政策环境进行分析。如果出现一年半即期利率低于一年期利率的情况,可能是由于上述某种或多种因素导致的。

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NO.PZ2020011303000190问题如下 The cash prices of 6-month anone-yeTreasury bills are 97.0 an93.0. A 1.5-yeantwo-yeTreasury bonwith coupons the rate of 6% per yesell for 98.5 an97.5. Calculate the six-month, 12-month, 18-month, an24-month spot rates with semi-annucompounng. 1. The six-month rate (semi-annually compoun is 2 x (100/97-1) = 0.06186 or 6.186%. 2. The one-yerate (semi-annuallycompoun is 2 × [ (100/93)1/2-1 ] = 0.07390 or 7.390%.3. The coupons on the 1.5 yebonhave a value of 0.97 × 3 + 0.93 × 3 = 5.7.The value of the finpayment is therefore 98.5 − 5.7 = 92.8. The scount factor for 1.5 years is 92.8/103 = 0.900971. This correspon to a spot rate (semi-annually compoun of 7.074%.4. The coupons on the two-yebonhave a value of 3 × 0.97 + 3 × 0.93 + 3 × 0.900971 = 8.4029The value of the finpayment is therefore 97.5 – 8.4029 = 89.0971. The scountfactor for two years is 89.0971/103 = 0.8650. This correspon to a spot rate(semi-annually compoun of 7.383%. 题目问6个月和1年的T-bill的价格是97和93,1.5年和2年的T-boncoupon rate是6%per year价格是98.5和97.5,计算6个月、12个月、18个月、24个月的半年付息一次的spot rate是多少?1. 6个月的spotrate(半年付息一次)= 2 x (100/97-1)= 6.186%2. 1年的spotrate(半年付息一次)= 2 × [ (100/93)1/2-1 ] = 7.390%3. T-bon附息债券,T-bill是零息的,T-bill求出来的价格就是折现系数,6个月的折现系数是0.97,12个月的折现系数是0.931.5年期的附息债券的coupon的价格= 0.97 × 3 + 0.93 × 3 = 5.7.最后一笔本金的价格=98.5 − 5.7 = 92.8.1.5年的scountfactor= 92.8/103 = 0.900971scount factor=1/(1+r)^n即可反求出1.5年的spotrate(半年付息一次) =7.074%.4. 2年期的附息债券的coupon价格=3 × 0.97 + 3 × 0.93 + 3 × 0.900971 =8.4029最后一笔本金的价格=97.5 – 8.4029= 89.09712年的scountfactor= 89.0971/103 = 0.8650scount factor=1/(1+r)^n即可反求出2年的spotrate(半年付息一次) =7.383%. 这么做错的原因在哪里?

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