请问如果

问题如下：

Luke examines West Texas Intermediate (WTI) monthly crude oil price data, expressed in US dollars per barrel, for the 181-month period from August 2000 through August 2015.The end-of-month WTI oil price was$51.16 in July 2015 and $42.86 in August 2015 (Month 181).

AR(1) model: Oil price_t = b₀ + b₁Oil price_t–1 + e_t

Based on the mean-reverting level implied by the AR(1) model regression output, the forecasted oil price for September 2015 is most likely to be:

选项：

A.

less than $42.86

B.

equal to $42.86

C.

greater than $42.86

解释：

The mean-reverting level from the AR(1) model is calculated as:

b₀/(1-b₁)=1.5948/(1-0.9767) = $68.45

Therefore, the mean-reverting WTI oil price from the AR(1) model is $68.45.The forecasted oil price in September 2015 will likely be greater than $42.86because the model predicts that the price will rise in the next period from the August 2015 price of $42.86.