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rosie · 2024年04月10日

选项易混淆

NO.PZ2023041102000016

问题如下:

Thibodeaux explains that knowing what establishes a currency’s real long-term equilibrium value helps investors manage risk exposure.

“To better serve our clients and maximize the performance of our investment fund we need to be able to filter out the short term noise in exchange rates so that we can better understand their likely direction over the long term.”

He notes that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) uses a three-pronged approach to assess the long-run equilibrium value of exchange rates.

“Of the three, I prefer the approach that is based on several economic factors including trends in a country’s net foreign asset position and terms of trade.”

The approach preferred by Thibodeaux to assess the long-run equilibrium value of exchange rates is best described as the:

选项:

A.reduced-form econometric model. B.macroeconomic balance approach. C.external sustainability approach.

解释:

The approach preferred by Thibodeaux is the reduced-form econometric model which seeks to estimate the equilibrium path that a currency should take on the basis of the trends in several key macroeconomic variables, such as a country’s net foreign asset position, terms of trade, and relative productivity. The approach combines elements of both the current account imbalance of the macroeconomic balance approach and the capital account focus of the external sustainability approach.

“Of the three, I prefer the approach that is based on several economic factors including trends in a country’s net foreign asset position and terms of trade.”


本题以上叙述是否同时符合External Debt Sustainability Approach以及Reduced-form Econometric Model 的表述?尤其是关于“ a country’s net foreign asset position”这一点。


谢谢!

1 个答案
已采纳答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2024年04月10日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


本题以上叙述是否同时符合External Debt Sustainability Approach以及Reduced-form Econometric Model 的表述?尤其是关于“ a country’s net foreign asset position”这一点。


Hello,亲爱的同学~

同学可以这么理解。

经济计量模型,也可以使用外债可持续,经常账户平衡的方法。

区别在于,如果是External Debt Sustainability Approach,那么只会明确使用外债占GDP比例,这一个条件。

而reduced-form econometric model,既可以使用经常账户平衡,也可以使用外债占GDP比例,或加入其他条件,其他方法,这是一个综合的方式。


正如解析所说:

The approach combines elements of both the current account imbalance of the macroeconomic balance approach and the capital account focus of the external sustainability approach.


本题的描述是:

I prefer the approach that is based on several economic factors including trends in a country’s net foreign asset position and terms of trade

这个描述与reduced-form econometric model更贴近。

其中:

in a country’s net foreign asset position 可以涉及到外债可持续性。

terms of trade可以涉及到经常账户平衡。



这题对应知识点为评估汇率的长期fair value。

这里给出了判断是均衡汇率的三个标准,分别是:

经常账户平衡。

外债占GDP的比例,长期可持续。

用宏观变量来评估汇率均衡的路径。(题目中的 based on several economic factors对应讲义的several key macroeconomic varaibles)


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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!