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刘杨 · 2024年04月03日

请问b选项

NO.PZ2023041102000028

问题如下:

Daltonia is a medium sized developing country. Naim Birol, Minister of Finance for Daltonia, wants to be on the lookout for situations which might trigger a currency crisis. He and his colleague Pamuk discuss recent economic developments that might provide potential warning signs.Ÿ

Birol: “Moving our currency to a floating exchange rate has reduced our susceptibility to a currency crisis.”Ÿ

Pamuk: “Banking crises often precede currency crises, but our banking sector has grown and strengthened substantially by offering foreign denominated savings accounts to foreign investors and lending those funds for domestic infrastructure investments.”Ÿ

Pamuk: “I’m concerned that the ratio of exports to imports has been increasing recently and the ratio of M2 to bank reserves has been falling.”

Which of the recent economic developments discussed by Birol and Pamuk is most likely to lead to a currency crisis?

选项:

A.The banking sector B.The exchange rate system C.The trend in terms of trade and monetary ratios

解释:

A is correct. Pamuk’s description of growth in the banking sector coupled with short-term funding denominated in foreign currency can lead to a currency crisis.

B is incorrect.Countries with fixed or partially fixed exchange rates are more susceptible.

C is incorrect.Broad measures of money such as M2 are likely to be rising (not falling) just prior to a crisis.

Pamuk: “I’m concerned that the ratio of exports to imports has been increasing recently and the ratio of M2 to bank reserves has been falling.”

这句的意思是,M2下降,本国利率上升,本币有升值倾向吗?

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2024年04月03日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


请问b选项

Hello,亲爱的同学~

固定汇率更加脆弱,更容易引发危机。

浮动汇率相对不容易引发危机。

把固定汇率,改为浮动汇率,会变动更加不容易有危机。

本题要选most likely to lead to a currency crisis的。

B不容易有危机。

所以B不选。


Pamuk: “I’m concerned that the ratio of exports to imports has been increasing recently and the ratio of M2 to bank reserves has been falling.”

这句的意思是,M2下降,本国利率上升,本币有升值倾向吗?

这句话的意思是,M2与银行储备的比例下降。并不涉及利率。

M2与银行储备的比例下降,则不会引发危机。

只有M2与银行储备的比例上升,才容易引发危机。

M2/银行储备高,说明货币流通速度高,货币乘数高,全社会都在加杠杆,容易引发资产价格过高,资产泡沫,从而触发危机。

本题要选有危机的,因此不选C。

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