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aileen20180623 · 2024年04月02日

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NO.PZ202209270100000307

问题如下:

To validate the forecast for rapid growth in the electronic scooter market over the next 10 years, Fromm speaks to the management of Omikroon and investor relations of ZeroWheel, a competitor. Fromm might be subject to which behavioral bias?

选项:

A.Conservatism B.Overconfidence C.Confirmation

解释:

C is correct. The management of Omikroom and investor relations of ZeroWheel are almost certainly biased in favor of expecting strong growth for the markets they participate in. To evaluate the forecast, Fromm should seek more independent sources and balance the biased sources with sources biased in the opposite direction or an analyst who is more skeptical.

为什么不是B,c?哪里来的?考点是啥/

1 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2024年04月03日

同学你好,请看以下讲义截图,behavior bias在2024年是属于FSA的考点

本题就是考察的comfirmation bias,其最大的特点就是分析师只咨询竞争对手关于行业的信息(竞争对手同样可能存在对行业过度乐观的看法)

而overconfidence则强调必须用多种情景进行分析,或是没有来由的对行业充满信心才可以——本题没有相关内容所以B错


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