是否可以用H model的方法求值

NO.PZ2018103102000089

问题如下：

Matt is evaluating the value of Company M by using the dividend discount model. The most recent dividend and the required rate of return are $1.0 per share and 7.5%, respectively. The company will experience a highly growth of 5% during the first three years. Thereafter, the dividend growth rate would be 3% per year into the indefinite future. What`s the value of Company M?

选项：

$22.66

$24.15

$25.15

解释：

B is correct.

考点：Two Stage Model

解析：

$PV_3=\frac{D_4}{r-g_L}=\frac{1.19}{7.5\%-3\%}$ =26.44

$P_0=\frac{1.05}{1.075}+\frac{1.10}{1.075^2}+\frac{1.16+26.44}{1.075^3}$ =24.15

想问一下这种general的model是不是也能用H model 的那种一站式算法，就是直接用3%的永续加上前面5%的部分，【1*（1+3%）+1*3（5%-3%）】/（7.5%-3%）=24.22 和B的24.15误差不大

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1 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2024年03月23日

同学你好，不行的哦

首先，我们必须严格按照题目要求的模型去计算，否则很可能和最后答案差距很大

第二，这道题的条件也和H model的适用条件不匹配——H model必须有一段时间是增长率缓慢的平均的下降的，而这道题只有高增长的一个增长率和低增长的另一个增长率，没有缓慢下降的阶段，不符合Hmodel的定义

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NO.PZ2018103102000089 问题如下 Matt is evaluating the value of Company M using the vinscount mol. The most recent vinanthe requirerate of return are $1.0 per share an7.5%, respectively. The company will experiena highly growth of 5% ring the first three years. Thereafter, the vingrowth rate woul3% per yeinto the infinite future. What`s the value of Company M? A.$22.66 B.$24.15 C.$25.15 B is correct.考点Two Stage Mol解析PV3=r−gL=1.197.5%−3%PV_3=\frac{4}{r-g_L}=\frac{1.19}{7.5\%-3\%}PV3=r−gL=7.5%−3%1.19=26.44P0=1.051.075+1.101.0752+1.16+26.441.0753P_0=\frac{1.05}{1.075}+\frac{1.10}{1.075^2}+\frac{1.16+26.44}{1.075^3}P0=1.0751.05+1.07521.10+1.07531.16+26.44=24.15 是否有其他条件导致折现率的选择有差异？

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NO.PZ2018103102000089 问题如下 Matt is evaluating the value of Company M using the vinscount mol. The most recent vinanthe requirerate of return are $1.0 per share an7.5%, respectively. The company will experiena highly growth of 5% ring the first three years. Thereafter, the vingrowth rate woul3% per yeinto the infinite future. What`s the value of Company M? A.$22.66 B.$24.15 C.$25.15 B is correct.考点Two Stage Mol解析PV3=r−gL=1.197.5%−3%PV_3=\frac{4}{r-g_L}=\frac{1.19}{7.5\%-3\%}PV3=r−gL=7.5%−3%1.19=26.44P0=1.051.075+1.101.0752+1.16+26.441.0753P_0=\frac{1.05}{1.075}+\frac{1.10}{1.075^2}+\frac{1.16+26.44}{1.075^3}P0=1.0751.05+1.07521.10+1.07531.16+26.44=24.15 请问一下为什么是1.19 不应该是 =1*（1+5%）^4 =1.2155嘛

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是否可以用H model的方法求值

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