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荒诞的肉丸 · 2024年03月23日

请详细解释下这道题

NO.PZ2024021802000081

问题如下:

Which of the following statements about incorporating ESG factors into valuation inputs is most accurate?

选项:

A.Adjustments to the discount rate can be based on individual company factors or on a country or sector basis B.The terminal growth rate is typically a weighted average of the required rates of return by debt and equity investors C.The discount rate should be decreased to account for the risk that future cash flows could be impacted by unpredictable climate policy shifts

解释:

A. Correct because adjustments to the discount rate or terminal growth rate can be based on individual company factors or on a country or sector basis.

B. Incorrect because this response describes the discount rate, not the terminal growth rate. The terminal growth rate is a perpetual compound annual growth rate that a company’s cash flow is assumed to grow by after the discrete forecasting period (e.g., after the next 5 or 10 years of individual forecasts, an analyst assumes cash flows grow by 2% forever); it reflects the company’s growth prospects.

C. Incorrect because if a company faces significant environmental regulations or litigation, that could hurt its future cash flows. The investor would factor in the potential costs of these risks into cash flow projections, lowering the company’s valuation in a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. Besides adjustments to discrete cash flow projections, analysts can adjust the discount rate (e.g., required rate of return, cost of capital) or terminal growth assumption in their DCF model to account for material ESG factors. For example, all coal producers and coal-powered utilities might be judged to have higher climate-related risk and thus higher discount rates. Their discount rate should be increased (instead of decreased) to account for the risk that future cash flows could be impacted by unpredictable climate policy shifts.

没有很懂这道题考点是什么,另外为什么选择A

2 个答案

王岑 · 2024年07月12日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


DCF模型的基本思想是:一个公司的价值等于未来所有预期现金流的现值。这就像你想知道未来每年能从一项投资中得到多少钱,然后把这些钱按照一定的折现率折算成今天的钱,来判断这项投资值不值得。

在DCF模型中,我们通常会预测公司的未来现金流,比如未来5年或10年。预测这些年之后,还需要考虑公司在更长时间内的表现。这个时候就引入了“期末增长率”。

期末增长率是指在详细预测期(比如前5年或10年)结束后,公司现金流每年会以什么样的速度增长。这是一个长期的、稳定的增长率,通常会比较保守,一般低于经济的长期增长率或通货膨胀率。

假设你在评估一家咖啡店的价值:

预测期现金流

  • 你预测未来5年咖啡店每年的现金流。
  • 比如:第1年100万,第2年110万,第3年120万,第4年130万,第5年140万。

期末增长率

  • 你需要假设第6年开始,咖啡店的现金流每年会增长的速度。
  • 比如:你假设咖啡店从第6年开始,每年的现金流增长率是3%。

那么,第6年的现金流将是第5年的现金流(140万)乘以1加上期末增长率(1+3%):

第6年的现金流=140万×(1+0.03)=144.2万

这个增长率会继续应用到后续每一年,这样就可以估算出更长期的现金流。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

王岑 · 2024年03月25日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


这道题目考查的是DCF模型的输入项的调整,其中,discount rate(贴现率)、terminal growth rate(期末增长率)、cash flow(现金流)都是DCF模型中的变量。这个考点可以看一下水印版讲义的第48-52页。

A选项提到,调整折现率可以基于个别公司的特定因素或者基于国家或行业的基础。这是因为不同的公司、国家或行业面临不同的ESG相关风险和机会。例如,一个在环境管理方面表现优秀的公司可能面临的风险较低,因此可能有较低的折现率,反映出较高的当前价值。反之,如果一个国家或行业因为忽视环境保护而面临较大的风险或潜在的法律问题,那么它们的折现率可能会被调高,以反映更高的风险和较低的当前价值。

B选项错误地描述了终值增长率。终值增长率与债权人和股权投资者要求的回报率无关,而是关于公司未来现金流的假设增长率。

C选项提出了降低折现率来应对不可预测的气候政策变化风险的观点,这与实际的风险管理做法相反。实际上,面临更大风险的公司应该提高折现率来反映更高的风险。


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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

froggy · 2024年07月11日

期末增长率是那个g吗

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2024-04-17 08:55 1 · 回答

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