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KKII · 2024年03月12日

risk-neutral probability of default 和 hazard rate,这俩有什么区别

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NO.PZ201812310200000204

问题如下:

The most appropriate response to Kowalski’s question relating to the credit spread is:

选项:

A.

an increase in the hazard rate.

B.

an increase in the loss given default.

C.

a decrease in the risk-neutral probability of default.

解释:

C is correct. A decrease in the risk-neutral probability of default would decrease the credit valuation adjustment and decrease the credit spread. In contrast, increasing the bond’s loss-given-default assumption and increasing the probability-of-default (hazard rate) assumption would increase the credit valuation adjustment and decrease the fair value of the bond (and increase the yield to maturity and the credit spread over its benchmark).

risk-neutral probability of default 和 hazard rate,这俩有什么区别

1 个答案

品职答疑小助手雍 · 2024年03月13日

同学你好,本身都是违约概率,只不过risk-neutral probability of default就是字面意思:风险中性下的违约概率。

hazard rate则是一个conditional的概念,假设是从t到t+delta t之间的hazard rate的意义是在t时刻之前不违约的情况下,在t 到t+delta t之间发生违约的概率。

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