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粗眉毛辣椒油 · 2024年03月09日

题目理解

NO.PZ2020012005000040

问题如下:

Suppose that F1 and F2 are the futures prices on the same commodity with maturities t1 and t2 with t2 > t1. Storage costs are negligible. The risk-free rate is R for all maturities. Use an arbitrage argument to show that:

F2F1(1+R)t2t1F_2\leq F_1(1+R)^{t_2-t_1}

选项:

解释:

A trader can enter into a long futures contract with maturity t1 and a short futures contract with maturity t2. At time t1 F1 is borrowed and the asset is bought for F1. The loan is repaid at time t2 and the asset is sold for F2.

The cash flows are

Time t1:F1+F1=0t_1: -F_1 + F_1 = 0, and

Time t2:F2F1(1+R)t2t1t_2: F_2 - F_1(1 + R)^{t_2 - t_1}

This simple strategy is certain to lead to a profit at time t2 if:

F2>F1(1+R)t2t1F_2 > F_1(1 + R)^{t_2 - t_1}

Thus, the prices will adjust such that:

F2F1(1+R)t2t1F_2 \leq F_1(1 + R)^{t_2 - t_1}

根据正常的物价上涨的逻辑来说,F2应该大于F1,所以存在套利机会,那就是在t1做空,借入期货,并卖掉得到资金,然后在t2卖掉期货,得到F2,然后支付F1(1+R)^(t2-t1)利息,得到F2-F1(1+R)^(t2-t1)的收益。

这个理解对吗?

但是答案中用现金流的方式不太理解,为什么time1现金流是这样。

另外结论Thus, the prices will adjust such that:这里的公式应该如何理解呢

2 个答案

品职答疑小助手雍 · 2024年03月10日

大于零了就有很明显的套利机会了,就会很投机者很快下单,市场价格就会发生变化,套利机会就会消失。

所以F2很快就会变得小于右边。而且套利机会在市场上也不多见,所以通常看定价的时候F2就一定会小于右边。

品职答疑小助手雍 · 2024年03月09日

同学你好,你理解的不对,借入资产再卖掉获得资金是现货的逻辑。本题是期货跨期套利的逻辑。


首先,套利的本质是空手套白狼。

所以在t1时刻,先从银行借了一笔钱F1,买入资产F1;同时进入了一个空头期货合约


在t2时刻,首先要做的是归还贷款,贷款金额=F1*(1+r)^(t2 - t1),

然后将我们在t1时买入的资产进行交割,此外还可以收到一笔钱F2,

所以t2 时刻,我们的现金流就是F2-F1*(1+r)^(t2-t1)


如果定价出现了题干中的F2 > F1*(1+r)^(t2-t1),那这个现金流就是大于0的,但这是不可能出现的(因为金融市场不存在空手套白狼),所以F2一定小于等于右边。

粗眉毛辣椒油 · 2024年03月09日

期货跨期套利明白了,t2时刻现金流也明白,但这不就是t2时刻的value吗?为什么不可能大于0呢?而且怎么能得出“F2一定小于等于右边”的结论呢?

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