NO.PZ201710100100000306
问题如下:
If Carlisle’s prediction about the economy of Country #3 is realized, the yield curve in Country #3 will most likely:
选项:
A.remain flat.
B.become upward sloping.
C.become downward sloping.
解释:
B is correct.
The yield curve in Country #3 is currently flat (Exhibit 1), and Carlisle predicts a recession. During a recession, short-term rates tend to be lower because central banks tend to lower their policy rate in these times. However, the impact of monetary policy on longer-term rates will not be as strong because the central bank will usually be expected to bring short-term rates back to normal as the recession recedes. Thus, the slope of the yield curve will likely become upward sloping during the recession.
考点:yield curve
解析:题干问的是 prediction is realized 的情况,Carlisle 预测的是recession,也就是说 recession 已经发生了
原收益率曲线是 flat,进入 recession,央行降息对短期收益率影响更大,因 此yield curve 向上倾斜
如果他预测成功,将来会进入衰退,那在衰退之前,曲线不应该是平的或者向下么