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薛定谔的蝎子 · 2024年02月23日

这题有歧义啊,到底是现在还是将来

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ201710100100000306

问题如下:

If Carlisle’s prediction about the economy of Country #3 is realized, the yield curve in Country #3 will most likely:

选项:

A.

remain flat.

B.

become upward sloping.

C.

become downward sloping.

解释:

B is correct.

The yield curve in Country #3 is currently flat (Exhibit 1), and Carlisle predicts a recession. During a recession, short-term rates tend to be lower because central banks tend to lower their policy rate in these times. However, the impact of monetary policy on longer-term rates will not be as strong because the central bank will usually be expected to bring short-term rates back to normal as the recession recedes. Thus, the slope of the yield curve will likely become upward sloping during the recession.

考点:yield curve

解析:题干问的是 prediction is realized 的情况,Carlisle 预测的是recession,也就是说 recession 已经发生了

原收益率曲线是 flat,进入 recession,央行降息对短期收益率影响更大,因 此yield curve 向上倾斜

如果他预测成功,将来会进入衰退,那在衰退之前,曲线不应该是平的或者向下么

1 个答案

品职助教_七七 · 2024年02月23日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


本题问题为:“If Carlisle’s prediction about the economy of Country #3 is realized”,所以说明Carlisle的预测已经实现了,由此可知经济现在确实已经recession了。

所以题目问的就是recession情况下yield curve的情况,也就是向上倾斜。不涉及到衰退之前的情况。


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NO.PZ201710100100000306 问题如下 6. If Carlisle’s prection about the economy of Country #3 is realize the yielcurve in Country #3 will most likely: A.remain flat. B.become upwarsloping. C.become wnwarsloping. B is correct. The yielcurve in Country #3 is currently fl(Exhibit 1), anCarlisle prects a recession. ring a recession, short-term rates tento lower because centrbanks tento lower their polirate in these times. However, the impaof monetary polion longer-term rates will not strong because the centrbank will usually expecteto bring short-term rates bato normthe recession reces. Thus, the slope of the yielcurve will likely become upwarsloping ring the recession.考点yielcurve解析题干问的是 prection is realize情况,Carlisle预测的是recession,也就是说recession已经发生了。原收益率曲线是flat,进入recession,央行降息对短期收益率影响更大,因此yielcurve向上倾斜。 是不是可以把这个当成结论来记住,比如 recession 就能推导出 upwarsloping那进入繁荣期,是不是就是wnwarsloping?知识点太多,我没记住,还请老师指正下,谢谢老师。

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NO.PZ201710100100000306 become upwarsloping. become wnwarsloping. B is correct. The yielcurve in Country #3 is currently fl(Exhibit 1), anCarlisle prects a recession. ring a recession, short-term rates tento lower because centrbanks tento lower their polirate in these times. However, the impaof monetary polion longer-term rates will not strong because the centrbank will usually expecteto bring short-term rates bato normthe recession reces. Thus, the slope of the yielcurve will likely become upwarsloping ring the recession. 考点yielcurve 解析题干问的是 prection is realize情况,Carlisle预测的是recession,也就是说recession已经发生了。原收益率曲线是flat,进入recession,央行降息对短期收益率影响更大,因此yielcurve向上倾斜。为什么是upwarloping?

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