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Anne · 2024年02月14日

A为何不对?

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NO.PZ201909280100000903

问题如下:

Which of the following set of derivative positions will most likely satisfy the IC’s concern about the event-driven strategy involving AA and TT?

选项:

A.Long out-of-the-money puts on AA shares and long out-of-the-money calls on TT shares B.Long out-of-the-money calls on AA shares and long out-of-the-money puts on TT shares C.Long risk- free bonds, short out- of- the- money puts on AA shares, and long out-of-the-money calls on TT shares

解释:

B is correct. The event-driven strategy that Mukilteo researches is a stock-for-stock merger arbitrage strategy. In this strategy, because the management of the acquiring company (AA) believes its shares to be overvalued, it will offer AA shares in exchange for target company (TT) shares in a specified ratio. The merger arbitrage fund manager will then buy TT shares and sell AA shares in the same ratio as the offer, hoping to earn the spread on successful deal completion.

For most acquisitions, the initial announcement of a deal will cause the target’s share price to rise toward the acquisition price and the acquirer’s share price to fall (either because of the potential dilution of its outstanding shares or the use of cash for purposes other than a dividend payment). If the acquisition is unsuccessful, the manager faces losses if the target’s share price has already risen and/or the acquirer’s share price has already fallen in anticipation of the acquisition. When merger deals do fail, the initial price rise of the target’s shares and the initial price fall of the acquirer’s shares are typically reversed. Arbitrageurs who jumped into the merger situation after its initial announcement stand to incur substantial losses on their long positions in the target’s shares and their short positions in the acquirer’s shares.

To manage the risk of the acquisition failing, the manager can buy out-of-the-money calls on AA shares (to cover the short position) and buy out-of-the money puts on TT shares (to protect against loss in value). Such a position will provide protection that would likely satisfy the IC’s concern about losses with this strategy.

A is incorrect because protecting against loss with this strategy requires buying out-of-the-money calls (not puts) on AA and buying out-of-the-money puts (not calls) on TT.

C is incorrect because it represents the payoff profile of this merger arbitrage strategy, not a way to protect the strategy against loss should the acquisition fail. The payoff profile of this merger arbitrage strategy resembles that of a riskless bond combined with a short put option on AA shares and a long call option on TT shares. The short put on the AA shares reflects the need to cover the short position in AA when the share price rises. The long call on TT shares becomes valuable if and when another interested acquirer (i.e., White Knight) makes a higher bid for TT before the initial merger proposal is completed.

事件驱动策略是一种股票对股票的并购套利策略。在该策略中,由于收购公司(AA)的管理层认为其股票被高估,它将以特定比例提供AA股份以换取目标公司(TT)的股份。并购套利基金经理随后将按照与要约相同的比例买入TT股票并卖出AA股票,希望在交易成功完成后赚取价差。

对于大多数收购而言,交易的最初宣布将导致目标公司的股价朝着收购价格上涨而收购方的股价下跌(因为其流通股可能被稀释或将现金用于非收购目的)股息支付)。如果收购不成功,如果目标公司的股价已经上涨和/或收购方的股价因预期收购而下跌,则管理人将面临损失。当合并交易确实失败时,目标公司股票的初始价格上涨和收购方股票的初始价格下跌通常会逆转。在首次宣布合并后进入合并情况的套利者,他们在目标公司股票中的多头头寸和在收购方股票中的空头头寸可能会遭受重大损失。

为了管理收购失败的风险,基金经理可以购买 AA 股票的虚值看涨期权(以保护空头头寸)并购买 TT 股票的虚值看跌期权(以防止TT公司价值损失) )。这样的头寸将提供保护,可以满足对这种策略的损失的担忧。

收购失败就不执行期权,没有任何损失(除了期权费)。成功了就执行期权。

1 个答案

伯恩_品职助教 · 2024年02月15日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


题目要求的是对冲event-driven策略风险。其策略就是short AA long TT,且已经这么做了,其风险就是收购失败导致的价差没消失反而扩大了,即AA涨,TT跌。那么如果是期权的话,担心AA涨,就long AA的call,担心TT跌,就long TT的put就对冲了,而A选项的方向和对冲的方向相反,不仅没有对冲风险反而扩大了,风险。

如果按照同学的思路A选项是替代event-driven的一个方法,而不是对冲现有的short AA long TT。和题目的要求不一样。

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