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小小圆仔 · 2024年02月10日

economically plausible是什么意思啊?

NO.PZ2022122601000028

问题如下:

Next, Bader applies the Grinold–Kroner model to estimate the expected equity returns for the various markets under consideration. For Country A, Bader assumes a very long-term corporate earnings growth rate of 4% per year (equal to the expected nominal GDP growth rate), a 2% rate of net share repurchases for Country A’s equities, and an expansion rate for P/E multiples of 0.5% per year.

Using the Grinold–Kroner model, which of the following assumptions for forecasting Country A’s expected equity returns is plausible for the very long run?

选项:

A.Rate of net share repurchases

B.Corporate earnings growth rate

C.Expansion rate for P/E multiples

解释:

Correct Answer: B

Country A’s long-term corporate earnings growth rate of 4% per year is equal to the expected nominal GDP growth rate of 4%, which is an economically plausible long-run assumption. The only very long-run assumptions that are consistent with economically plausible relationships are %ΔE = Nominal GDP growth, %ΔS = 0, and %ΔP/E = 0, where %ΔE is the expected nominal earnings growth rate, %ΔS is the expected percentage change in shares outstanding, and %ΔP/E is the expected percentage change in the price-to-earnings ratio.

A is incorrect because a 2% rate of net share repurchases would eventually eliminate all shares, which is not an economically plausible very long-run assumption. The only very long-run assumptions that are consistent with economically plausible relationships are %ΔE = Nominal GDP growth, %ΔS = 0, and %ΔP/E = 0, where %ΔE is the expected nominal earnings growth rate, %ΔS is the expected percentage change in shares outstanding, and %ΔP/E is the expected percentage change in the price-to-earnings ratio.

C is incorrect because Country A’s perpetually rising P/E would lead to an arbitrarily high price per currency unit of earnings per share. The only very long-run assumptions that are consistent with economically plausible relationships are %ΔE = Nominal GDP growth, %ΔS = 0, %ΔP/E = 0, where %ΔE is the expected nominal earnings growth rate, %ΔS is the expected percentage change in shares outstanding, and %ΔP/E is the expected percentage change in the price-to-earnings ratio.

如题,economically plausible是什么意思啊? 

1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2024年02月10日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


表示再经济上是有道理的。

联系上下文可以理解为,A国每年4%的长期企业盈利增长率等于4%的预期名义GDP增长率,这个长期假设在经济上是合理的。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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