NO.PZ2022122601000028
问题如下:
Next, Bader applies the Grinold–Kroner model to estimate the expected equity returns for the various markets under consideration. For Country A, Bader assumes a very long-term corporate earnings growth rate of 4% per year (equal to the expected nominal GDP growth rate), a 2% rate of net share repurchases for Country A’s equities, and an expansion rate for P/E multiples of 0.5% per year.
Using the Grinold–Kroner model, which of the following assumptions for forecasting Country A’s expected equity returns is plausible for the very long run?
选项:
A.Rate of net share repurchases
B.Corporate earnings growth rate
C.Expansion rate for P/E multiples
解释:
Correct Answer: B
Country A’s long-term corporate earnings growth rate of 4% per year is equal to the expected nominal GDP growth rate of 4%, which is an economically plausible long-run assumption. The only very long-run assumptions that are consistent with economically plausible relationships are %ΔE = Nominal GDP growth, %ΔS = 0, and %ΔP/E = 0, where %ΔE is the expected nominal earnings growth rate, %ΔS is the expected percentage change in shares outstanding, and %ΔP/E is the expected percentage change in the price-to-earnings ratio.
A is incorrect because a 2% rate of net share repurchases would eventually eliminate all shares, which is not an economically plausible very long-run assumption. The only very long-run assumptions that are consistent with economically plausible relationships are %ΔE = Nominal GDP growth, %ΔS = 0, and %ΔP/E = 0, where %ΔE is the expected nominal earnings growth rate, %ΔS is the expected percentage change in shares outstanding, and %ΔP/E is the expected percentage change in the price-to-earnings ratio.
C is incorrect because Country A’s perpetually rising P/E would lead to an arbitrarily high price per currency unit of earnings per share. The only very long-run assumptions that are consistent with economically plausible relationships are %ΔE = Nominal GDP growth, %ΔS = 0, %ΔP/E = 0, where %ΔE is the expected nominal earnings growth rate, %ΔS is the expected percentage change in shares outstanding, and %ΔP/E is the expected percentage change in the price-to-earnings ratio.
如题,economically plausible是什么意思啊?