NO.PZ202206070100000502
问题如下：
Using the data in Exhibit 1 and the investment team’s approach to predict the Fed’s next move, the new fed funds rate will most likely be:
选项：
A.2.9%. B.2.6%. C.2.1%.解释：
Solution
C is correct. The Taylor rule is
Roptimal = Rneutral + [0.5 × (GDPgforecast – GDPgtrend)] + [0.5 × (Iforecast – Itarget)]
= 2.5 + [0.5 × (3.0 – 4.5)] + [0.5 × (3.2 – 2.5)]
= 2.5 – 0.75 + 0.35
= 2.10%
C是正确的，依据泰勒公式可得：
Roptimal = Rneutral + [0.5 × (GDPgforecast – GDPgtrend)] + [0.5 × (Iforecast – Itarget)]
= 2.5 + [0.5 × (3.0 – 4.5)] + [0.5 × (3.2 – 2.5)]
= 2.5 – 0.75 + 0.35
= 2.10%
对于加不加expected inflation这项先说下我的理解：
题目条件给的是FFR neutral rate, 问的是new FFR neutral rate。
第一种情况：
假设题目给的FFR neutral rate是real rate, 那么问的也就是real rate,因为表述方式是一样的，那么结果不需要加expected inflation
第二种情况：
假设题目给的FFR neutral rate是nominal rate, 那么已经包含了expected inflation, 最后问我们的也是nominal rate, 也不需要再重复加expected inflation.
综上，我认为无论是哪种情况，都不需要另外添加expected inflation, 除非题目特别明确的给出real rate然后问nominal rate
所以，我认为这题答案并没有错误，老师认为呢？
