NO.PZ202206070100000402
问题如下：
The comparison between the survey data and actual performance data for the consumer credit and telecommunications industries most likely exhibits:选项：
A.ex post risk being a biased measure of ex ante risk. B.a status quo bias. C.an availability bias.解释：
Solution
A is correct. As stated, the projections in the survey data tended to be more volatile than the actual outcomes over the same time period. This result indicates that the ex post risk (i.e., the volatility of the actual data) tends to have a downward bias relative to the ex ante risk displayed by the survey data. This tendency is evidence of ex post risk being a biased measure of ex ante risk.
B is incorrect. The status quo bias is a bias toward recent observations as being predictive of the future.
C is incorrect. The availability bias is a bias toward allowing expectations to be unduly influenced by a previous event that left a significant impression.
本题考查的是事前事后风险
A是正确的。在同一时期，调查数据中的预测结果往往比实际结果更不稳定。这一结果表明，相对于调查数据显示的事前风险，事后风险(即实际数据的波动性)往往具有向下的偏差。这种趋势表明了事后风险是对事前风险的一种有偏差的衡量。
B是不正确的。“现状偏见”指的是将最近的观察结果视为对未来的预测，本题中并未体现。
C是不正确的。availability bias是一种倾向于允许预期受到先前事件的过度影响的偏差，因为这些事件给人留下了深刻的印象。本题中并未体现。
我不知道我理解的对不对啊，讲义上说的Ex Post Risk Can Be a Biased Measure of Ex Ante Risk，所以只是说事后风险是事前风险的有偏估计，而不是说一定事后风险会低估事前风险，讲义上只是说likely（Looking backward, we are likely to underestimate ex ante risk and overestimate ex ante anticipated returns），而且peso problem恰好是事后风险低估事前风险的情况。实际情况中也会有事后风险高估事前风险的情况（也就是市场事前过度悲观）。如果理解的有问题请指正
