NO.PZ202001210200000108
问题如下：
Based on Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yield curve in the near term to:
选项：
A.invert
flatten
C.steepen
解释：
C is correct. The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase (curve is flat to inverted), with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions (i.e., bond yields are declining). The curve will most likely steepen near term, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phase of the business cycle, and be the steepest on the cusp of the initial recovery phase.
解析：
Y国目前的收益率曲线表明，商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向)，债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡，与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致，并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。
所以只有C选项正确。
但是这张讲义里面，说的是expansion时期，yield curve是steepen的，contraction时期是inverted的。和本题的解析正好相反。我有点不太理解，yield curve的形状是先行指标还是滞后指标，是yield curve的变化预示着经济的变化，还是经济变化之后yield curve才会发生变化。烦请老师解释下本题和讲义的区别点在哪里
