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秋樣 · 2024年01月24日

Alternatives - 可转债套利

NO.PZ2019092801000005

问题如下:

Yankel Stein is the chief investment officer of a large charitable foundation based in the United States. Although the foundation has significant exposure to alternative investments and hedge funds, Stein proposes to increase the foundation’s exposure to relative value hedge fund strategies. As part of Stein’s due diligence on a hedge fund engaging in convertible bond arbitrage, Stein asks his investment analyst to summarize different risks associated with the strategy.

Describe how each of the following circumstances can create concerns for Stein’s proposed hedge fund strategy:

i.Short selling

ii.Credit issues

iii.Time decay of call option

iv.Extreme market volatility

选项:

解释:


Short selling:股票所有者可能希望他/她的股票在可能不合时宜的时间归还,这可能会导致空头挤压,如果借入基础股票变得太困难或对套利者来说成本太高,则可能导致重大损失和突然不平衡的风险敞口。

Credit issues:指的是convertible bond会面临信用风险,信用风险得大小会影响CB的price,我们这个策略成功的前提就是股债同涨同跌,但是当发生信用风险的时候,股票和债券之间价格的关系就会变化,那么策略就有可能不成功。


Time decay of call option:由于可转换债券的嵌入式看涨期权在已实现股票波动率降低期间的时间衰减和/或由于市场隐含波动率水平的普遍压缩,可转换债券套利策略可能会亏损。大概意思是说可转债中内嵌的call随着时间的流逝,call的价值会逐渐降低,所以如果市场波动一直是不温不火甚至是波动下降的话,等到call到期,这个策略就失败了。


Extreme market volatility:convertible bond arbitrage我们的初衷是想让让本被低估CB回到正常的价值。同时利用债券的凸性。如果波动率极度上升可能会带来一个问题,债券信用风险会上升,投资者会考虑发债人是否有能力还债,毕竟CB本质还是一个债,导致市场情绪波动CB会大跌(虽然整体组合是delta neutral了,但单个CB还是会跌,只是由于做空stock赚回来。)。投资者一看在CB大跌,会着急,纷纷要求赎回,在还没有恢复正常的价值时,HF manager就只能被迫在亏损的时候平仓。所以极度波动对CB并不好。

你好老师,麻烦给我批改下答案,谢谢!!


different risks associated with convertible bond arbitrage:

i.Short selling:the strategy is to long a undervalued convertible bond and to short the overvalued stock. Therefore the short position might cause short squeeze.

ii.Credit issues:The convertible bond is still a bond, therefore will be influenced by the credit condition of the company.

iii.Time decay of call option:the embedded call option in the convertible bond will be subject to time decay.

iv.Extreme market volatility:If the market is in hight volatility, then the credit spread might be widened, causing the convertible bond price to decline.


第二和第四点有类似的地方吧?


3 个答案

伯恩_品职助教 · 2024年01月29日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


好的谢谢。credit spread might be widened这个不算,必须是 heightened credit risks,这个这么严格一定要写到risk是吧?我之前也写了很多答案给老师批改,都没觉得问答题这么严格,好吧突然不自信了。。——首先别慌,考前找到问题是好事。我考试前被mock题也折磨的不想考了。但最后还是过了。所以心态一定要放好。

然后具体问题来说哈。这个答案因为教材有标准的写法,最好按照标准写。而且考试的时候改试卷的人可能就只找关键词了,没看到heightened credit risks就直接过了。就会很亏。不过现在考试很少考这么纯记忆的。更多还是理解的。可以到时候听我们的押题班

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

伯恩_品职助教 · 2024年01月24日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


i.Short selling:the strategy is to long a undervalued convertible bond and to short the overvalued stock. Therefore the short position might cause short squeeze.同学你看这里你没有提到最重要的 the stock owner may want his/her shares returned at a potentially inopportune time, 万一证券所有人在股票上涨的时候要回股票怎么办,这个才是short selling的核心。

ii.Credit issues:The convertible bond is still a bond, therefore will be influenced by the credit condition of the company.这里你没写到When credit spreads widen or narrow, there would be a mismatch in the values of the stock and convertible bond positions .当信贷利差扩大或缩小时,股票和可转换债券头寸的价值就会出现错配。导致没办法完成对冲套利。这才是关键。

第三个你写的很接近,但不理想。你至少要写到这句话The convertible bond arbitrage strategy can lose money due to time decay可转换债券套利策略可能会因时间衰减而亏损。你只是写的可转换债券中的嵌入认购期权将受到时间衰减的影响。影响是好的还是坏的?

第四个 Extreme market volatility typically implies heightened credit risks. Convertibles are naturally less-liquid securities,这个是关键中的关键,极端的市场波动通常意味着信贷风险的增加。可转换债券自然是流动性较低的证券。你的答案没有提到信用风险增加(credit spread might be widened这个不算,必须是 heightened credit risks),还有流动性差这个都没写。原因原版书答案也都有,因为这个时候赎回会增加,只能卖出证券,但是流动性差,会加剧亏损,有左偏风险。

整个你写的答案没有到关键点上,我这里说一下,希望同学不要介意,我把关键句写下来同学还是没发现没写到得分点。我觉得同学这里真的特别建议重新听一下李老师这块的讲解。感觉同学在这里没有理解。我说这个是希望同学真的学会,顺利通过考试,希望同学不要介意我这么说

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

伯恩_品职助教 · 2024年01月24日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


同学这个不行的。你这个没掌握知识点。可以参考下文。

. When short selling, shares must be located and borrowed; as a result, the stock owner may want his/her shares returned at a potentially inopportune time, This situation, particularly a short squeeze, can lead to substantial losses and a suddenly unbalanced exposure if borrowing the underlying equity shares becomes too difficult or too costly for the arbitrageur.

ii. Bonds have exposure to credit risk; When credit spreads widen or narrow, there would be a mismatch in the values of the stock and convertible bond positions .

iii. The convertible bond arbitrage strategy can lose money due to time decay of the convertible bond’s embedded call option during periods of reduced realized equity volatility and/or due to a general compression of market implied volatility levels.

iv.  Extreme market volatility typically implies heightened credit risks. Convertibles are naturally less-liquid securities, so convertible managers generally do not fare well during such periods.

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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