如何理解trend rate？

问题如下：

Observation 2 Country Y is expected to significantly increase transfer payments and introduce a more progressive tax regime.

Based on Observation 2, what impact will the policy changes have on the trend rate of growth for Country Y?

选项：

A.

Negative

B.

Neutral

C. Positive

解释：

Correct Answer: C

C is correct. Country Y is expected to significantly increase transfer payments and introduce a more progressive tax regime. Both of these changes are pro-growth government policies and should have a positive impact on the trend rate of growth for a business cycle that is in slowdown or contraction. Transfer payments help mitigate fluctuations in disposable income for the most vulnerable households, while progressive tax regimes imply that the effective tax rate on the private sector is pro-cyclical (i.e., rising as the economy expands and falling as the economy contracts).

中文解析：

C正确。Y国预期将大幅增加转移支付，并采用更累进的税收制度。这两项变化都是有利于增长的政府政策，应该会对处于放缓或收缩中的商业周期的趋势增长率产生积极影响。转移支付有助于缓解最脆弱家庭可支配收入的波动，而累进税制意味着私营部门的有效税率是顺周期的(即，随着经济扩张而上升，随着经济收缩而下降)。