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秋樣 · 2024年01月10日

Equity - early expansion

NO.PZ2022122601000010

问题如下:

Gonzalez provides information for country C, which is summarized in the following exhibit


For Country C, which of the following trends is most likely to occur for current money market rates and those in the short-term future?

选项:

A.Declining; pace may be expected to accelerate B.Moving up; pace may be expected to accelerate C.

Above average and rising; expectations tempered by eventual peak/decline

解释:

Correct Answer: B

When bond yields and the yield curve are in a state where:

Yields rising. Possibly stable at longest maturities. Front section of yield curve steepening, back half likely flattening.”

and monetary policy and automatic stabilizers are: Withdrawing stimulus”

then money market rates are “Moving up. Pace may be expected to accelerate.”

Choice A could be expected during a contraction phase, while choice C could be expected in a late expansion phase.

中文解析:

当债券收益率和收益率曲线处于如下状态:

收益率上升。可能在最长期限内是稳定的。收益率曲线前段趋陡,后半段可能趋平。”

货币政策和自动稳定器是:“退出刺激”

那么货币市场利率就会“上升”。步伐可能会加快。”

选择A可能出现在收缩阶段,而选择C可能出现在扩张后期。

你好老师:


想问下,为什么early expansion下,the front section of the yield curve is steepening,and the back half of the yield curve is a flat curve 呢?因为相对于initial recovery,early expansion阶段的曲线肯定会往上且平坦一些,那为啥前半部分曲线会steepen?不应该前后都flat了吗?(毕竟initial recovery阶段的短期利率是low and bottoming)。

另外,sloping upward的意思就是steepening吗?为什么pace也会accelerate呢?谢谢



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笛子_品职助教 · 2024年01月10日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


想问下,为什么early expansion下,the front section of the yield curve is steepening,and the back half of the yield curve is a flat curve 呢?因为相对于initial recovery,early expansion阶段的曲线肯定会往上且平坦一些,那为啥前半部分曲线会steepen?不应该前后都flat了吗?(毕竟initial recovery阶段的短期利率是low and bottoming)。

Hello,亲爱的同学~

early expansion的收益率曲线,是正常的,斜率向上的曲线。

这种曲线呈现出上升弧形,图示如下:


观察短期限和长期限的曲线形状会发现,这种上升弧形的特点是:短期陡峭,远期平坦。



另外,sloping upward的意思就是steepening吗?

sloping upward是指斜率为正。

steepening是指斜率为正,且斜率数值很大。

两者有一定区别。


为什么pace也会accelerate呢?谢谢

经济的复苏总是由慢变快的,先慢慢复苏,然后加速复苏,最后放缓下行。

利率是跟着经济走的,因此利率也是先缓慢上升,再加速上升。

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秋樣 · 2024年01月10日

谢谢老师。