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金融小白星 · 2024年01月02日

麻烦老师解释下correlation这里为啥不对

Dias has asked whether it would be appropriate for him to hedge his foreign currency exposure. Campos raises the issue with Traldi and Peixaria. Traldi responds, “In the short run, if the correlation between foreign asset returns and foreign currency returns is negative, then there may be a need to hedge all foreign currency exposure. Alternatively, one could implement a currency overlay program in which the currency exposure is fully hedged and currency alpha is generated separately. This currency overlay strategy will only be successful in adding value to the portfolio if the currency alpha has a high correlation with Brazilian equities and corporate bonds.”



In her response regarding hedging foreign currency exposure in Dias’s portfolio, Traldi is most likely:

  1. incorrect about the correlations, but correct about the currency overlay program.
  2. incorrect about the correlations and the currency overlay program.
  3. correct about the correlations and the currency overlay program.


答案:

B is correct. Traldi is incorrect about the correlations and the currency overlay program. In the short run, if the correlation between foreign currency asset returns and foreign currency returns is negative, then there may be no need to hedge all foreign currency exposure because some currency exposure is desirable from a portfolio diversification perspective. Regarding the currency overlay program, it will add value to the portfolio only if the currency alpha has a low correlation with other asset classes in the portfolio (i.e., Brazilian equities and corporate bonds).


请老师解释下为啥correlation这里不对,外币资产return和外币升值正相关,为啥就不用fully hedge,答案说为了diversification,不理解~

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已采纳答案

pzqa31 · 2024年01月02日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


本题中的是关于两个correlation的判断。


1. 第一个说foreign asset returns and foreign currency returns的相关性,注意如果二者的相关性是负数的话,说明自带分散化的属性,所以此时是没有必要一定要做对冲的。因此题干说反了。这一点也可以通过计算外汇投资时risk的那个公式来看,如果相关性为负数,说明最后的那个交叉性是负数,因此是降低风险的,所以可以降低对冲要求的。


2. 第二个是关于currency overlay中相关性的表述,也是错误的。

首先呢,我们先理解一下currency overlay,注意在外汇管理中,我们要学会把外汇就当做一种普通的资产类型,和股票,债券等一样。Currency overlay就是说现在我们想把这个叫做外汇的资产单独剥离出去找人管理,自然是这个资产要很好的从咱们的组合中剥离出去才行啊,即外汇这个资产和其他的资产类型的相关性很低才可以。如果他和其他资产一直藕断丝连难分难舍,肯定是不利于对其单独进行管理。


另外,外部的公司不会考虑到我们整体的头寸的diversification,只是单独看外汇部分来采取策略,如果二者相关性很高,就会因为各自单独管理没有注意到整体的分散性,而可能产生各自管理下的收益还好,但是整体收益却很低的情况,而整个头寸的收益才是我们关心的重点。


所以题干中说相关性要很高才能使得currency overlay策略成功就是错误的了。

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