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506623496 · 2023年12月20日

题目给的信息进一步理解

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ202105270100000505

问题如下:

Based on Bader’s expectations for current account secular trends as shown in Exhibit 1, Bader should reallocate capital, all else being equal, from:

选项:

A.Country A to Country C.

B.Country B to Country A.

C.Country C to Country A.

解释:

A is correct.

Bader should reallocate capital from Country A, which is expected to have a secularly rising current account deficit, to Country C, which is expected to have a secularly rising current account surplus. A rising current account deficit will tend to put upward pressure on real required returns and downward pressure on asset prices, whereas a rising current account surplus (or narrowing deficit) will put downward pressure on real required returns and upward pressure on asset prices. Analysts should consider reallocation of portfolio assets from countries with secularly rising current account deficits to those with secularly rising current account surpluses (or narrowing deficits).

巴德尔应该将资本从A国(预计经常账户赤字将长期上升)重新配置到C国(预计经常账户盈余将长期上升)。不断上升的经常账户赤字往往会给实际所需回报带来上行压力,给资产价格带来下行压力,而不断上升的经常账户盈余(或赤字缩小)则会给实际所需回报带来下行压力,给资产价格带来上行压力。分析师应考虑将投资组合资产从经常账户赤字长期上升的国家重新配置到经常账户盈余长期上升(或赤字不断缩小)的国家。


1.只看通胀,C的通胀预期下降,预期本币升值,应该投C

2.热钱流入,C短期货币升值

这两个角度看,也适合投C,这样理解对吗?

1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2023年12月20日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


1如果只看通胀,通胀下降会导致本币升值。

2.热钱流入也会使得一国本题短期升值。

所以仅看这两个角度,同学的理解是对的。

但是题目说的是“current account secular trends”,也就是经常账户的角度,所以解析也是从这个角度出发来分析的。

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