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506623496 · 2023年12月18日

答案的解释和B选项statement 2没关系吧?

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NO.PZ201812020100000405

问题如下:

Which of Molly’s statements about liability-driven investing is (are) correct?

选项:

A.

Statement 1 only

B.

Statement 2 only.

C.

Both Statement 1 and Statement 2.

解释:

C is correct. Molly is correct that measurement error can arise even in immunization strategies for Type 1 cash flows, which have set amounts and set dates. Also, a parallel shift in yield curves is a sufficient but not a necessary condition to achieve the desired outcome. Non-parallel shifts as well as twists in the yield curve can change the cash flow yield on the immunizing portfolio; however, minimizing the dispersion of cash flows in the asset portfolio mitigates this risk. As a result, both statements are correct.

答案没有解释cash flow matching 的问题?

1 个答案

pzqa31 · 2023年12月18日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


利率的改变不会影响到Cash flow matching的匹配效果。


Cash flow matching的原理就是:

我们先分析负债现金流发生的日期与金额,这是我们需要满足的现金流流出。然后我们购买合适的债券组合,经过计算与设计,让债券的Coupon与本金现金流流入正正好等于负债的现金流流出,且Coupon以及本金现金流的发生日期也正正好等于负债现金流发生的日期。就是设计好资产现金流,让资产现金流严丝合缝地与负债现金流对上。


注意到,收到债券Coupon与本金的日期正正好是负债的到期日,所以Coupon现金流就发生在负债到期时,这样就不存在Coupon reinvestment risk。这样无论利率如何改变,都不影响Coupon现金流归还负债。

同时,又由于归还负债现金流还包含债券本金的自然到期,这是债券的自然到期,债券到期拿到的一定是本金面值,不存在Price risk。所以无论利率如何改变,也都不会影响本金现金流。


于是,设计好的Coupon现金流与本金现金流,都不受利率改变的影响,归还的金额也是我们提前计算好的,这样归还负债的现金流也就不受利率的影响了。这就导致Cash flow matching这种方法,可以消除利率的影响。


这就是statement2的结论:利率改变(Parallel shift也好,Non-parallel shift也好,都无所谓),都不影响Cash flow matching来偿还负债。


和Cash flow matching相对应的是Duration-matching。Duration-matching我们不管负债的现金流,我们匹配的原理是保证资产的收益不受利率的影响。

如何保证债券资产的收益不受利率的影响呢?

实际上是让利率改变时,债券的Coupon reinvestment risk与债券价格的Price risk相互抵消,即,利率改变对债券收益的影响途径就是Coupon reinvestment risk与Price risk,现在这两个风险抵消掉了,那么就意味着,利率改变不会影响到债券的投资收益,那么债券可以实现预期的增值,负债到期时,资产可以顺利实现增值偿还负债。

但要让Coupon reinvestment risk与Price risk相互抵消有一个前提,就是:只有利率的平行移动才能一定保证price risk与Coupon reinvestment risk完全抵消。

当发生非平行移动时,两个风险有可能会出现无法抵消的情况,如果这两个风险无法抵消,就会导致Duration-matching失效。

所以发生non-parallel shift时,Duration-matching相比就没那么保险了,于是Cash flow matching有更好的immunization效果。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

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