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dejiazheng · 2023年12月16日

降低capital expenditures是否可以理解为降低operating cost?

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NO.PZ202210140100000105

问题如下:

Yorkton’s ESG integration approach is likely to impact equity valuation by:

选项:

A.

increasing revenues.

B.

raising the discount rate

C.

reducing operating costs.

解释:

B is correct. Titian faces significant long-term environmental risk factors. The imposition of stricter regulation on greenhouse gas emissions in the developing countries will result in stranded assets, as much of Titian steel capacity becomes obsolete and not economically viable. Shifting away from low-cost coal usage will likely result in higher operating costs, and declining oil and natural gas demand will result in lower revenues for stainless steel. Thus Yorkton should raise the discount rate for Titian to account for the higher environmental risk.

A is incorrect because Titian’s revenues are likely to decline as a result of the projected fall in demand for oil and natural gas. As a result, oil and natural gas companies will cut their exploration and drilling budgets and reduce their purchases of stainless steel.

C is incorrect since operating costs are likely to rise as Titian shifts away from using low-cost coal to more expensive energy sources.

因降低低成本能源品的消耗,从而提高折现率,对这个表述不理解

1 个答案

王琛_品职助教 · 2023年12月18日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


0

背景是这样的,现在有一家 T 公司,分析师在对其股票估值中,考虑 ESG 因素

即,在使用未来现金流折现估值中,分别考虑 ESG 因素,会怎么影响分子的现金流,和分母的折现率

参考案例背景最后一句话

He uses a discounted cash flow model to value Titian stock.

分子的现金流,可以简化为收入减去成本

所以三个选项,就是在考查考生对 ESG 因素如何分别影响收入、成本、折现率的理解

1

先说收入

对应案例背景最后一段倒数第二句话

根据国际能源机构 (IEA) 的长期预测,Y 同学预计未来十年石油和天然气的需求将下降,从而减少石油公司在勘探和钻井方面的资本支出

Based on long-term forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Yorkton expects oil and natural gas demand to decline over the next decade, reducing oil company capital expenditures on exploration and drilling.

同学的第一个问题,理解是正确的

降低资本支出,确实是会降低 operating cost

但是对象或者说主体错了呀,案例背景说的是【石油公司】,不是 T 公司

石油公司是 T 公司的客户

参考案例背景第二段第二句话

The firm’s major customers are oil and gas firms using stainless steel in their drilling operations.

所以石油公司减少资本支出,意味着 T 公司的客户对其产品的需求会减少

所以对应的应该是 T 公司的未来收入会减少,所以选项 A 错误

2

再说支出

同学的第二个问题,关注的是:降低低成本能源品的消耗

但是题目里并没有提到这点呀,案例背景的交代是

T 公司的钢铁生产属于能源密集型,主要产品是不锈钢,生产依赖煤炭

Yorkton points out that Titian’s steel production is energy intensive and relies on coal in producing its main product, stainless steel.

T 公司的大部分钢铁产能位于发展中经济体,这些国家目前面临的环境法规很少。

Most of Titian’s steel capacity is located in developing economies, where it currently faces few environmental regulations.

但是,分析师认为,由于发展中经济体在温室气体排放方面的监管变化,公司面临着巨大的长期风险。

He believes the company faces significant long-term risk due to regulatory changes regarding greenhouse gas emissions in the developing economies

也就是说,如果监管趋严,可能会严控煤炭的消耗,而要求使用成本更高的清洁能源

如果咱们对实务背景不了解也没关系,只要关注关键句即可,即:

这些变化将对 T 公司的钢铁产能和生产成本产生负面影响

These changes will have a negative impact on Titian’s steel capacity and its production costs.

所以 T 公司的 operating costs 不是减少,而是增加,所以不选 C

3

最后再说折现率

折现率反应风险,风险越高,折现率越大

上面也提到了

分析师认为,由于发展中经济体在温室气体排放方面的监管变化,公司面临着巨大的长期风险。

He believes the company faces significant long-term risk due to regulatory changes regarding greenhouse gas emissions in the developing economies

所以风险增加,应该提高折现率以反映风险,所以选 B

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