NO.PZ2021090805000023
问题如下：
Exhibit 1
Monte Carlo Simulation Results for Retirement Goal of a Hypothetical Client
According to the table below, John's interpretation is:
Over 20 years, 30% of the time clients have not met their goals.
Over 15 years, the value of the investment portfolio is at least 25% of $1,711,500.
Over 20 years, the client will run out of money 75% of the time.
Among John's three possible interpretations for Exhibit 1, the most accurate one is:
选项：
A.Interpretation 1.
Interpretation 2
Interpretation 3
解释：
A is correct. Interpretation 1 is correct: Over 20 years, 70% of the trials were successful, which means that the client achieved his or her goals 70% of the time, or did not achieve them in 30% of the trials.
B is not correct. Fifteen years later, the portfolio value of $1711500 indicates that in 25% of the trials over that time frame, the portfolio value may exceed $1711500, rather than 25% of that value.
C is incorrect. Over 20 years, 75% of the trials will result in losses below $249211. Although some of the results will be losses, the table does not indicate the positive or negative aspects of the results.
A是正确的。解释1是正确的：在20年的时间里，70%的试验是成功的，这意味着客户70%的时间达到了他或她的目标，或者在30%的试验中没有达到。
B不正确。15年后，1,711,500美元的投资组合价值表明，在该时间段内25%的试验中，投资组合价值可能超过1,711,500美元，而不是该价值的25%。
C不正确。在20年内，75%的试验将导致低于249,211美元的损失。尽管其中一些结果将是损失，但该表并未说明结果的积极或消极部分。
你好，对这个题不理解。
Interpretation 1，按照课上说的，意思不是70%trials成功、30%trials失败吗？为什么是30%的客户达不成目标呢？而且75%那一栏是（249211）不应该解读为75%的概率投资额会亏损249211吗？
Interpretation 2 ，15年内，有25%的概率投资金额会达到1711500。
Interpretation 3， 20年内，“the client will run out of the money 75% of the time"是什么意思？难道不是75%的概率投资额会亏损249211？
我视频听了三遍，我觉得李斯克老师说的很不清楚。。
