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pseudonym · 2023年11月07日

这个表格应该怎么看呢?请问讲义哪里有讲到吗?谢谢

NO.PZ2021090805000023

问题如下:

Exhibit 1

Monte Carlo Simulation Results for Retirement Goal of a Hypothetical Client

According to the table below, John's interpretation is:

  1. Over 20 years, 30% of the time clients have not met their goals.

  2. Over 15 years, the value of the investment portfolio is at least 25% of $1,711,500.

  3. Over 20 years, the client will run out of money 75% of the time.

Among John's three possible interpretations for Exhibit 1, the most accurate one is:

选项:

A.

Interpretation 1.

B.

Interpretation 2

C.

Interpretation 3

解释:

A is correct. Interpretation 1 is correct: Over 20 years, 70% of the trials were successful, which means that the client achieved his or her goals 70% of the time, or did not achieve them in 30% of the trials.

B is not correct. Fifteen years later, the portfolio value of $1711500 indicates that in 25% of the trials over that time frame, the portfolio value may exceed $1711500, rather than 25% of that value.

C is incorrect. Over 20 years, 75% of the trials will result in losses below $249211. Although some of the results will be losses, the table does not indicate the positive or negative aspects of the results.

A是正确的。解释1是正确的:在20年的时间里,70%的试验是成功的,这意味着客户70%的时间达到了他或她的目标,或者在30%的试验中没有达到。

B不正确。15年后,1,711,500美元的投资组合价值表明,在该时间段内25%的试验中,投资组合价值可能超过1,711,500美元,而不是该价值的25%。

C不正确。在20年内,75%的试验将导致低于249,211美元的损失。尽管其中一些结果将是损失,但该表并未说明结果的积极或消极部分。

如题,这个表格应该怎么看呢?请问讲义哪里有讲到吗?谢谢

1 个答案
已采纳答案

王暄_品职助教 · 2023年11月08日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


也是讲义的P44页,您可以去看对应的视频,李老师有讲到如何读表,对应视频位置如下:

Module 1,视频【investment planning:capital sufficiency analysis】,1.5倍速,20分20秒

----------------------------------------------
虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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NO.PZ2021090805000023 问题如下 Exhibit 1Monte Carlo Simulation Results for Retirement Goof a HypotheticClientAccorng to the table below, John's interpretation is:Over 20 years, 30% of the time clients have not met their goals.Over 15 years, the value of the investment portfolio is least 25% of $1,711,500.Over 20 years, the client will run out of money 75% of the time.Among John's three possible interpretations for Exhibit 1, the most accurate one is: A.Interpretation 1. B.Interpretation 2 C.Interpretation 3 A is correct. Interpretation 1 is correct: Over 20 years, 70% of the trials were successful, whimeans ththe client achievehis or her goals 70% of the time, or not achieve them in 30% of the trials.B is not correct. Fifteen years later, the portfolio value of $1711500 incates thin 25% of the trials over thtime frame, the portfolio value mexcee$1711500, rather th25% of thvalue.C is incorrect. Over 20 years, 75% of the trials will result in losses below $249211. Although some of the results will losses, the table es not incate the positive or negative aspects of the results.A是正确的。1是正确的在20年的时间里,70%的试验是成功的,这意味着客户70%的时间达到了他或她的目标,或者在30%的试验中没有达到。B不正确。15年后,1,711,500美元的投资组合价值表明,在该时间段内25%的试验中,投资组合价值可能超过1,711,500美元,而不是该价值的25%。C不正确。在20年内,75%的试验将导致低于249,211美元的损失。尽管其中一些结果将是损失,但该表并未说明结果的积极或消极部分。 按照题目给的条件。应该是有75%的概率,投资的FV是above $249,211。这么理解对吗?

2024-06-11 15:43 1 · 回答

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2023-12-05 19:47 2 · 回答