NO.PZ2021090805000022
问题如下：
John and his wealth advisor Bourne discuss investments.
Bourne described the differences between deterministic predictions and Monte Carlo simulations in investment plans and traditional and goal-based methods in constructing investment portfolios. After hearing about these methods, John stated that he believes that goal-based investment methods are most suitable for his needs because
it allows him to specify a level of risk tolerance for each goal,
growth toward each goal on a straight-line basis is much easier to understand, and
It provides the ability to predict the success probability of each goal.
John's most appropriate comment on his preference for goal-based investment methods is:
选项：
A.
risk tolerance.
B.
growth toward a goal.
C.
probability of success of a goal.
解释：
A is correct. Only the comments on risk tolerance specifically addresses goal-based investments, and his statement is correct.
B is incorrect. Straight-line growth is not a feature of goal-based investing; it is a component of the deterministic forecasting method for determining capital sufficiency in which a given return is assumed to compound until the investment horizon is reached.
C is incorrect. Probability of success is not a feature of goal-based investing; it is an outcome of the Monte Carlo method for determining capital sufficiency.
A是正确的。只有关于风险承受能力的评论专门针对基于目标的投资，他的说法是正确的。
B不正确。直线增长不是基于目标的投资的特征；它是确定资本充足性的确定性预测方法的一个组成部分，在该方法中，假设给定的回报率是复合的，直到达到投资期限。
C不正确。成功的概率不是基于目标的投资的特征；它是确定资本充足性的蒙特卡罗方法的结果。
如题，probability of success是由蒙特卡洛模拟推算出来的，这个在讲义哪里有讲到吗？
