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胖胖 · 2023年10月20日

future consumption outcomes

NO.PZ2023040601000085

问题如下:

Risk-averse investors demanding a large equity risk premium are most likely expecting their future consumption outcomes and equity returns to be:

选项:

A.

uncorrelated.

B.

positively correlated.

C.

negatively correlated.

解释:

If investors demand high equity risk premiums, they are likely expecting their future consumption and equity returns to be positively correlated. The positive correlation indicates that equities will exhibit poor hedging properties, as equity returns will be high (e.g., pay off) during “good times” and will be low (e.g., not pay off) during “bad times”. In other words, the covariance between risk-averse investors’ inter-temporal rates of substitution and the expected future prices of equities is highly negative, resulting in a positive and large equity risk premium. This is the case because, in good times, when equity returns are high, the marginal value of consumption is low. Similarly, in bad times, when equity returns are low, the marginal value of consumption is high. Holding all else constant, the larger the magnitude of the negative covariance term, the larger the risk premium.

what does future consumption outcome mean? does this mean benefit of consuming in the future compared to now.

so a higher equity return would mean consume now, so isn't that inverse relationship.


and what is the relationship between "future consumption outcome" and subsitution rate?

1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2023年10月20日

同学你好,

1)future consumption outcome指的是未来的消费情况,如果经济变差,则未来的消费会下滑;

2)经济变差时,股票也同样会亏损,无法在此时用股票的收益来消费。所以股票无法对冲消费下滑,属于高风险,故需要较高的premium来做补偿。

3)由上可知,股票收益和消费同时下滑,也就是正相关的关系。

4)本题中的future consumption outcome和intertemporal rate of substitution无关。

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