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yan · 2023年10月19日

关于这道题目答题内容的理解判断

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NO.PZ202001210200000108

问题如下:

Based on Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yield curve in the near term to:

选项:

A.

invert

B.

flatten

C.

steepen

解释:

C is correct. The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase (curve is flat to inverted), with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions (i.e., bond yields are declining). The curve will most likely steepen near term, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phase of the business cycle, and be the steepest on the cusp of the initial recovery phase.

解析:

Y国目前的收益率曲线表明,商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向),债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡,与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致,并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。

所以只有C选项正确。

请老师帮忙看看,我的理解是否对。现在阶段是slowdown,即yield curve表现为inverted,因为题目提问是说下一级段是什么表现,下一阶段是contraction,所以答案是steepen,对么?

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2023年10月20日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


可以这么理解。


注意这里有个错位:经济周期与收益率曲线的错位。

 The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase (curve is flat to inverted), with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions (i.e., bond yields are declining). 


从这句话看出,经济周期还是slowdown,但债券收益率曲线已经不反应slowdown了,开始反应contraction。

这是这道题的特殊之处。


因此,这道题的问题,实际上是,contraction下,债券收益率曲线是什么形状。

contraction对应steepen.

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