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天天天儿 · 2023年09月21日

经济周期和债券收益率的关系到底是怎样的

NO.PZ2018091901000054

问题如下:

Neshie Wakuluk is an investment strategist. Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s predictions:

Wakuluk decides to focus on Country Y. Wakuluk makes the following observations:

Observation 3 The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase, with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions.

Based on Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yield curve in the near term to:

选项:

A.

invert.

B.

flatten.

C.

steepen

解释:

C is correct.

The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase (curve is flat to inverted), with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions (i.e., bond yields are declining). The curve will most likely steepen near term, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phase of the business cycle, and be the steepest on the cusp of the initial recovery phase.

解析:

Y国目前的收益率曲线表明,商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向),债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡,与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致,并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。

所以只有C选项正确。

正常来说不是经济不好时,债权收益率会高一点吗?

那么从slowdown过度到contraction的时候,为什么不是inverted呢?

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2023年09月22日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


正常来说不是经济不好时,债权收益率会高一点吗?

不是。

正常来说,经济不好的时候,债券收益率会低一些,而不是高一些。


那么从slowdown过度到contraction的时候,为什么不是inverted呢?

slowdown过度到contraction的时候,经济是逐步走弱的。

经济走弱,则利率降低。

由于利率期限结构中,短期利率的变动,比长期利率要大。

因此在利率下降的时候,短期利率下降更多,长期利率下降更少。

所以才有,contraction阶段,债券曲线陡峭这个结论。

----------------------------------------------
虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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NO.PZ2018091901000054 问题如下 Neshie Wakuluk is investment strategist. Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s prections:Wakuluk cis to focus on Country Y. Wakuluk makes the following observations:Observation 3 The current yielcurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionary contions.Baseon Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yielcurve in the neterm to: invert. B.flatten. C.steepen C is correct. The current yielurve for Country Y suggests ththe business cycle is in the slowwn phase(curve is flto inverte, with bonyiel starting to reflecontractionarycontions (i.e., bonyiel are clining). The curve will most likelysteepen neterm, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phaseof the business cycle, anthe steepest on the cusp of the initirecoveryphase. 解析Y国目前的收益率曲线表明,商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向),债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡,与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致,并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。所以只有C正确。 在slowwn阶段,因为央行加息或者加准,短期利率很高,yielcurve变平,则下一个阶段可能是降准降息,曲线steepen。但如果slowwn阶段曲线invert了,他降低短期利率至少得先变平,再变陡峭,此题没考虑这种情况

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