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欧明圣 · 2023年08月29日

为什么不是a选项,且无法准确定位问题所在的提干位置

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ202207040100000502

问题如下:

Evidence of which behavioral bias is most likely to be found when analyzing the Lunnar C fund?

选项:

A.Survivorship

B.Look-ahead

C.Confirmation

解释:

Solution

C is correct. Confirmation bias, a cognitive error sometimes referred to as “stock love bias,” is the tendency of fundamental-based analysts and investors to look for information that confirms their existing beliefs about their favorite companies and to ignore or undervalue any information that contradicts their existing beliefs. Both look-ahead bias and survivorship bias are risks inherent in backtesting quantitative active strategies.

A is incorrect. Survivorship bias is a risk inherent in backtesting a quantitative active strategy. This approach creates a bias whereby only companies that have survived are tested and it is assumed that the strategy would never have invested in companies that have failed. Survivorship bias often leads to overly optimistic results and sometimes even causes investors to draw wrong conclusions.

B is incorrect. Look-ahead bias is a risk inherent in backtesting a quantitative active strategy. This bias results from using information that was unknown or unavailable at the time an investment decision was made. An example of this bias is the use of financial accounting data for a company at a point in time before the data were actually released by the company.

根据表1显示,lunnar c会着重near term的表现且下文又说会看well known的,那么就容易产生survivor ship的问题吧?

题干也无法定位到哪里说是confirmation bias的,没看到哪里说只看对自己有利的信息或相关内容,麻烦帮手指点迷津下,谢谢

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2023年08月30日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


根据表1显示,lunnar c会着重near term的表现且下文又说会看well known的,那么就容易产生survivor ship的问题吧?

我们看表1


寻找一些近期业绩成长比较高的股票。这与幸存者偏差没有关系。

同时well knwon,这里是指风格盒子,做风格分析用的,和幸存者偏差也没关系。


幸存者偏差是指做量化的时候,只针对目前还在上市交易的公司做策略,并没有考虑已经退市的公司。

而LunarC基金,题目明确,使用基本面分析方法,不是量化分析方法,因此没有幸存者偏差。


题干也无法定位到哪里说是confirmation bias的,没看到哪里说只看对自己有利的信息或相关内容,麻烦帮手指点迷津下,谢谢

这里是排除法。

题干说,确认,是否有Survivorship、Look-ahead、Confirmation。

幸存者偏差刚刚说了。是量化回测的时候,没有考虑退市的公司。

Look-ahead是指做量化回测的时候,用了未来函数。把当时没公布的数据,用到了策略里,这也是量化的时候常常会犯的错误。

而Confirmation是指分析师做基本面分析的时候,只看到对自己有利的信息,没看到对自己不利的信息。这是基本面分析的时候,容易犯的错误。


因此,作为一个基本面分析的LUNNARC基金,更易有基本面分析常见的Confirmation。


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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

506623496 · 2024年01月18日

Survivorship、Look-ahead这两个偏差都是量化里才有的?

506623496 · 2024年01月18日

本题题眼在原文里只看表格1里的文字,不用看后面的描述吗

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