NO.PZ2022122601000058
问题如下：
Francisco Martin and Emma Liu are analysts at the same firm. Martin uses the cyclical indicator approach to formulate his equity market outlook, whereas Liu uses microvaluation analysis to develop her equity market outlook.
Describe two general limitations of Martin’s approach to formulating an equity market outlook.
选项：
解释：
Correct Answer:
Limitations of the Cyclical Indicator Approach are as follows:
ü False Signals – This occurs when a series that is moving in one direction suddenly reverses and nullifies a prior signal, or hesitates, which is difficult to interpret.
ü Currency of the Data and Revisions – Some data series are reported with a lag. Also, revisions in data can change the magnitude of the signal, and even change the direction implied by the original data.
ü Economic Sectors Not Reported – Examples include the service sector, import-exports, and many international series.
ü Changes in Relationships among Economic Variables – unstable relationships might invalidate assumptions about the effects of changes in a variable.
中文解析：
错误信号-这发生在一个方向上移动的序列突然反转，使先前的信号无效，或者犹豫，这很难解释。
数据的时效性和修订-一些数据系列的报告有滞后。此外，数据的修正可以改变信号的大小，甚至改变原始数据所隐含的方向。
未报告的经济部门-例子包括服务业、进出口和许多国际系列。
经济变量之间关系的变化——不稳定的关系可能会使有关变量变化影响的假设失效。
Martin uses the cyclical indicator approach to formulate his equity market outlook, the limitation is:
1.it can only have a yes/no answer.'
2.it can give a false signal.
