NO.PZ2023041102000033
问题如下:
Based on the latest data, an analyst projects that 3.25% real growth in the future and 3.75% inflation. He also forecasts that over the long run, equity market will return 13.5% per year—11% annual appreciation and 2.5% dividend yield—forever. Assuming the macroeconomic forecasts are accurate, which conclusion can be obtained underlie the forecast of 11% equity market appreciation (over the long run)?选项:
A.expansion in the P/E multiple is zero B.the combined contribution from expansion in the P/E multiple and change in shares outstanding of GDP is 4% C.there is not enough information to obtain the conclusion.解释:
Using the Grinold-Kroner framework, equity market returns can be attributed to (1) dividend yield, (2) expansion/contraction of the price-to-earnings ratio, (3) nominal GDP growth, and (4) change in shares outstanding. The macroeconomic forecast indicates that nominal GDP will grow at 7% (3.25% real + 3.75% inflation). So, the analyst’s forecast of 11% equity market appreciation implies a 4% annual combined contribution from expansion in the P/E multiple and/or change in shares outstanding of GDP over the long run.b选项里的 “ change in shares outsanding of gdp" 这一项是指公司股票的流通量变化,但为什么表述为”of gdp“呀? 怎么理解呢...
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