NO.PZ2022122601000009
问题如下：
Robert Hadpret is the chief economist at Agree Partners, an asset management firm located in the developed country of Eastland. He has prepared an economic report on Eastland for the firm’s asset allocation committee. Hadpret notes that the composite index of leading economic indicators has declined for three consecutive months and that the yield curve has inverted. Private sector borrowing is also projected to decline. Based on these recent events, Hadpret predicts an economic contraction and forecasts lower inflation and possibly deflation over the next 12 months.
Helen Smitherman, a portfolio manager at Agree, considers Hadpret’s economic forecast when determining the tactical allocation for the firm’s Balanced Fund (the fund). Smitherman notes that the fund has considerable exposure to real estate, shares of asset-intensive and commodity-producing firms, and high-quality debt. The fund’s cash holdings are at cyclical lows.
Discuss the implications of Hadpret’s inflation forecast on the expected returns of the fund’s holdings of:
i. cash.
ii. bonds.
iii. equities.
iv. real estate.
选项：
解释：
中文解析：
现金
该基金受益于周期性的低现金持有量。随着经济萎缩和通货膨胀率下降，短期利率可能会大幅下降。在这种环境下，现金或短期计息工具没有吸引力。然而，如果名义利率受到“下限为零”的约束，通缩可能会使现金特别有吸引力。否则，通缩只是所需短期实际利率的一个组成部分。
债券
该基金持有的高质量债券将受益于通胀或通缩的下降。随着债券收益率中预期通胀部分的下降，通胀下降会带来资本利得。持续的通货紧缩有利于最高质量的债券，因为它增加了它们现金流的购买力。然而，这将损害低质量债务的信誉。
股票
该基金持有的资产密集型和大宗商品生产企业将受到通货膨胀或通货紧缩下降的负面影响。在股票市场中，较高的通货膨胀有利于那些有能力转嫁成本上升的公司。相比之下，通货膨胀或通货紧缩的下降对资产密集型和大宗商品生产企业尤其不利，因为它们无法将价格上涨转嫁出去。
房地产
该基金的房地产持有量将受到通货膨胀或通货紧缩的负面影响。通货膨胀或通货紧缩的下降将对预期租金收入和物业价值造成下行压力。尤其受到负面影响的将是次级房地产，它们可能不得不大幅削减租金，以避免空置率上升。
题目说马上要进入contraction了，那投股票不应该是好的吗？还是说要等到contraction的后期才会好
